Today, Ronald Reagan’s 1980 defeat of Jimmy Carter seems like it must have been a foregone conclusion. After all, Reagan won 44 out of 50 states and beat Carter by over 10 percent in the final popular vote tally. But only a week or so before the election, Carter was ahead. A late October Gallop Poll put the incumbent Carter up by 8 percent among registered voters and by 3 percent among likely voters.
But Reagan’s performance in that contest’s only televised debate, held on October 28th, changed voters’ minds, and the ground shifted under Carter’s feet. Despite late polls putting him behind, Reagan accomplished a dramatic victory.