War, what is it good for?

[Mr. Daystar]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-warns-united-states-against-084812207.html

My concern is, how will Russia try and stop the flow from America, I think Russia might be getting Afghanistan flashbacks. I'm not sure how we move the product, but if it's by ship. there is A LOT of ocean a Russian sub could hide in, and we know they have ground to air missiles. I think it would be hard to send planes against air transport, as they risk flying over others air space, and incurring that countries involvement.

 

[gmase]

I like how the Russians invaded Ukraine, yet it is our (US) arms which are inflaming the conflict. Blame the victim for defending itself. Nice.

 

[Mr. Daystar]

I like how the Russians invaded Ukraine, yet it is our (US) arms which are inflaming the conflict. Blame the victim for defending itself. Nice.

We're in the UN. Do we even have any choice? I know we aren't going to send in men, but if we have treaties with allies, and those allies are involved, we might be obligated under treaty, to help. I personally would prefer we sit this out, but in my opinion, half of Putin's chest puffing, is to provoke Biden, or the U.S. The only way he can stop shipments is by force, and if he shoots down a transport plane, business will pick up. As I think about it, nothing will be going by boat, this isn't WWII, I don't know how that escaped my first thought, so it's by air. I think he's unstable enough to fire a couple missiles at our cargo planes. At what point after that, does the shit hit the fan? This country can't really afford to dump that kind of cash into this thing, and I don't really think the people want us in another war. It would seem very possible if he did attack American military personal. The other question I have is, are those dollar amounts gross, or net? Does that dollar figure just cover materials, or does it include fuel, crew, etc.

 

[tvstrip]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-warns-united-states-against-084812207.html

My concern is, how will Russia try and stop the flow from America, I think Russia might be getting Afghanistan flashbacks. I'm not sure how we move the product, but if it's by ship. there is A LOT of ocean a Russian sub could hide in, and we know they have ground to air missiles. I think it would be hard to send planes against air transport, as they risk flying over others air space, and incurring that countries involvement.

My understanding is that it's all being brought in via Poland. Because Russia doesn't have air superiority, it seems like they can't stop the land shipments coming in. It's possible that they're intentionally not attacking NATO supply convoys, but it's been established that once they cross into Ukraine, they are fair game and wouldn't automatically trigger a NATO response. If Russia does somehow get air superiority, and they can attack those shipments at will, then there would be a problem.

 

[Mr. Daystar]

My understanding is that it's all being brought in via Poland. Because Russia doesn't have air superiority, it seems like they can't stop the land shipments coming in. It's possible that they're intentionally not attacking NATO supply convoys, but it's been established that once they cross into Ukraine, they are fair game and wouldn't automatically trigger a NATO response. If Russia does somehow get air superiority, and they can attack those shipments at will, then there would be a problem.

Thank you. I was aware that the air didn't belong to them, but I didn't know they were coming in through Poland. I know we had a little "misunderstanding" about aircraft, with Poland. I would think Russia has an air to ground missile they could put on the border that could reach out and touch us, but is he stupid enough. We know he's crazy enough. as I posted elsewhere, this guy is a loose canon, and I don't think he's going to be happy until he's used a nuke. Hopefully this miserable little fuck will choke on a shot of vodka, and just go away, but I doubt it.

 

[xfire]

Sad thing, the political right use similarly dehumanizing language towards their political, "enemies".

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2022/06/ukraine-mass-murder-hate-speech-soviet/629629/

(Complete article here- https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2022/06/ukraine-mass-murder-hate-speech-soviet/629629/)

 

[Mr. Daystar]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/race-britain-moves-heavy-artillery-195437790.html

So basically, they're getting a bunch of Paladin self propelled Howitzers. I don't think Canada makes there own, and I doubt France has any major military industry, so they will all essentially be American weapons. It would be nice if Israel stepped up, and helped out, like they've been helped in the past, but I haven't heard anything about them making an effort. Plus, they make high end fire power. although God knows what problems that could cause. I also wonder what little secret plans are taking place, to move a carrier group closer, because I do not think that's going go over well.

 

[tvstrip]

Thank you. I was aware that the air didn't belong to them, but I didn't know they were coming in through Poland. I know we had a little "misunderstanding" about aircraft, with Poland. I would think Russia has an air to ground missile they could put on the border that could reach out and touch us, but is he stupid enough. We know he's crazy enough. as I posted elsewhere, this guy is a loose canon, and I don't think he's going to be happy until he's used a nuke. Hopefully this miserable little fuck will choke on a shot of vodka, and just go away, but I doubt it.

You're Welcome.
What I am interested/worried about is, Russia isn't just going to sit with their thumb up their ass as NATO & the world endlessly supplies Ukraine. At some point, hitting those supply lines will become a priority for them. If they take Odessa, which is seemingly their next big target, they could feasibly launch ship/land/air attacks on the supply lines in west.

The big question is then: If a NATO convoy delivering weapons is hit inside Ukraine, what will NATO's response be?

 

[Mr. Daystar]

Hopefully the European countries will be able to take care of retaliation. Putin is trying his best to draw us in, he wants America to preform some sort of military action, so he has an excuse to escalate everything. Question is, even if we are able to avoid any personal military involvement, who will he invade next? I don't think he'll stop at Ukraine. He might stop at the border of what used to be the post WWII wall. I think he's got that Hitleresque pride of country, and wants what he thinks is his, back.

Or he's just a nut.

 

[tvstrip]

He cray cray.
So much so that the world is still tippy-toeing around him:

Why the US is holding off on sanctioning Putin's rumored girlfriend
https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics...n-rumored-girlfriend-reporting-newday-vpx.cnn

Basically they're saying we don't want to piss him off too much, that he'll go off the deep end. Not to say that he won't go there anyways.

But again, I'm curious, what do you guys think will happen when he inevitably hits a NATO weapons shipment transport in Ukraine?
1) If there's no response, that's just going to embolden him to go after every NATO convoy to stem the supplies. Not good. But...
2) If there's retaliation, well, all bets are off, as now you have actual foreign military action.

 

[gmase]

If NATO is hit inside Ukraine, then they assumed the risk of loss. Why retaliate directly? Just increase the lethal aid and have the Ukraine respond. Rattle sabres a bit.

The more problematic issue is an erroneous - or intentional - strike against NATO in Poland. I could see Putin deciding to break the supply line at the entry point.

 

[Mr. Daystar]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/top-ukraine-official-hitler-won-074148963.html

Please help us, we're desperate. What? That's it, and why did it take you so long? The gratitude of all of these countries we help, overwhelms me. Ya know, it would be great if we had just a single stinking minute, to get our own country, and our people squared up, and doing well, before we get our asses into more of a financial cluster fuck, or another war.

 

[tvstrip]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/21/what-is-donbas-donetsk-luhansk-conflict/

So maybe I'm optimistic, but here's a prediction: Russia will go all out and take over Luhansk and Donetsk i.e. the Donbas. But once they do, they'll declare "victory" and end the war. With pro-Moscow forces already there, it will probably be a reasonable goal for them to take over the region, not to mention it's literally on the border, so supplies won't be as hectic. The region has been a headache for Ukraine anyways, and by not giving a general surrender, they can still claim victory as well. The west didn't give 2 shits when Crimea was taken, so a couple of more regions, which had separatist movements anyways, I don't see really tipping the scales either if it means an end to the war.
So Ukraine, Russia and the world can all claim victory.

Sound feasible?

https://www.yahoo.com/news/top-ukraine-official-hitler-won-074148963.html
Please help us, we're desperate. What? That's it, and why did it take you so long? The gratitude of all of these countries we help, overwhelms me.

I agree, sometimes I feel there are mixed messages, both thanking and criticizing the help they are getting... sometime in the same sentence.

 

[gmase]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/21/what-is-donbas-donetsk-luhansk-conflict/

So maybe I'm optimistic, but here's a prediction: Russia will go all out and take over Luhansk and Donetsk i.e. the Donbas. But once they do, they'll declare "victory" and end the war. With pro-Moscow forces already there, it will probably be a reasonable goal for them to take over the region, not to mention it's literally on the border, so supplies won't be as hectic. The region has been a headache for Ukraine anyways, and by not giving a general surrender, they can still claim victory as well. The west didn't give 2 shits when Crimea was taken, so a couple of more regions, which had separatist movements anyways, I don't see really tipping the scales either if it means an end to the war.
So Ukraine, Russia and the world can all claim victory.

Sound feasible?

Certainly. The best part for the west will be the rebuilding part. It looks like the Ukraine will need a Marshall Plan of sorts. The pictures of the devastation to neighborhoods looks horrific.

 

[D-rock]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/21/what-is-donbas-donetsk-luhansk-conflict/

So maybe I'm optimistic, but here's a prediction: Russia will go all out and take over Luhansk and Donetsk i.e. the Donbas. But once they do, they'll declare "victory" and end the war. With pro-Moscow forces already there, it will probably be a reasonable goal for them to take over the region, not to mention it's literally on the border, so supplies won't be as hectic. The region has been a headache for Ukraine anyways, and by not giving a general surrender, they can still claim victory as well. The west didn't give 2 shits when Crimea was taken, so a couple of more regions, which had separatist movements anyways, I don't see really tipping the scales either if it means an end to the war.
So Ukraine, Russia and the world can all claim victory.

Sound feasible?


I agree, sometimes I feel there are mixed messages, both thanking and criticizing the help they are getting... sometime in the same sentence.

The lifting of the sanctions on Russia will be problematic even in that scenario. It's not like the day after Russia quits hostilities that the West will be able to declare it all water under the bridge, and we can all go back to the old status quo. Appearances have to be kept up if nothing else, at least for a time, no matter how much some people want Russia's gas and oil.

Another thing is I don't know how much actual rational actors are in charge in Russia anymore. As much as they might pretend otherwise a very minor "victory" will still be something that is pretty humiliating for Russia all things considered. They might not say that, and everybody else might not say that, but they will know and everybody will know they know. I don't know how well Putin will deal with humiliation at this stage, even if he really wants an excuse to get out.

They acted in a way that they put themselves in a situation with no easy out, and now there might not be an easy victory either. All to jump and perceived threats that never existed for the most part or blind nationalistic pride and imperialism. It's laughable that Ukraine would be considered a threat to them, and while other nations might have taken advantage of a situation where they were turning away from each other that wasn't from outside influence. Ukraine just never wanted to be Russia's puppet, just like all the people of the old Soviet Block countries didn't want to be puppet states to them decades ago.

What I don't understand is why so many of the people that run Russia would ever assume that most Ukrainians would ever see themselves as Russian or even think they would like them despite some shared cultural heritage. It would be like others thinking that people in the USA and Canada see themselves the same, or even a better example that Iraqis and Iranians would see themselves as the same, when that notion is ridiculous. If most Ukrainians didn't dislike Russia before, which they probably didn't, they certainly will despise them now and for the foreseeable future.

 

[tvstrip]

The lifting of the sanctions on Russia will be problematic even in that scenario. It's not like the day after Russia quits hostilities that the West will be able to declare it all water under the bridge, and we can all go back to the old status quo. Appearances have to be kept up if nothing else, at least for a time, no matter how much some people want Russia's gas and oil.

Given that EU countries were still buying Russian gas until they shut the pipes off, I think lifting sanctions won't necessarily be a huge issue, especially for those who are just waiting to buy Russian stuff again. Inflation is running high worldwide, and there are companies who are blaming the shutdown of Russian operations as part of the reason for price increases. So if going back to "business as usual" will dampen inflationary forces, even a little, that's going to be more attractive than the superficial façade of "making Russia pay".

Also, no country that wasn't unconditionally defeated in war was ever held guilty of war crimes, so let's be honest, putsky was never going to be held accountable for the war. So there's no real incentive to continue hostilities if they declare an end to the conflict. As sucky as that may seem.

 

[D-rock]

Given that EU countries were still buying Russian gas until they shut the pipes off, I think lifting sanctions won't necessarily be a huge issue, especially for those who are just waiting to buy Russian stuff again. Inflation is running high worldwide, and there are companies who are blaming the shutdown of Russian operations as part of the reason for price increases. So if going back to "business as usual" will dampen inflationary forces, even a little, that's going to be more attractive than the superficial façade of "making Russia pay".

Also, no country that wasn't unconditionally defeated in war was ever held guilty of war crimes, so let's be honest, putsky was never going to be held accountable for the war. So there's no real incentive to continue hostilities if they declare an end to the conflict. As sucky as that may seem.

I don't think there is a chance Putin will ever be punished. I don't think Putin thinks that or is remotely scarred of the prospect. If anything his biggest threat is somebody close to him getting tried of his insanity or some Russian billionaire getting tired of losing money and finding a way to shoot him in the back, and even the chances of that are pretty slim.

Somebody being immune to actual direct punishment still doesn't mean one is immune from humiliation, and I have a feeling with somebody like Putin things like that matter to him.

 

[tvstrip]

I don't think there is a chance Putin will ever be punished. I don't think Putin thinks that or is remotely scarred of the prospect. If anything his biggest threat is somebody close to him getting tried of his insanity or some Russian billionaire getting tired of losing money and finding a way to shoot him in the back, and even the chances of that are pretty slim.

Somebody being immune to actual direct punishment still doesn't mean one is immune from humiliation, and I have a feeling with somebody like Putin things like that matter to him.

We're on agreeance on him being prosecuted. He's not going to the Hague anytime soon, if not ever.

Yes, I totally agree humiliation is a huge factor - the guy has the same pride content as trump. That's why I don't think he will pull out until he takes Donbas - leaving now with his tail between his legs and only Mariupol to show for it would be humiliation he can't take. But that's also why I feel that if/once he takes the Donbas and taking the W, he can avoid humiliation. Why risk everything by going further?

Even he has to realize that there's a huge risk to trying to take the entire country, and the closer he gets to Poland, the harder it will get. Imagine if Ukraine moves all their forces to the West. They can even move the Capital to Lviv. It will be easier to supply their forces since they're right beside Poland. Russia will also need to be SUPER careful not to touch Poland since that would trigger a NATO response. He can't just bombard cities & forces willy-nilly like he is right now (and even then he's still having trouble). So long as Ukraine gets supplied via Poland, I don't see how Russia can take Western Ukraine.

And if he tries and fails, that would be total humiliation for putsky.

 

[Mr. Daystar]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-weapon-switcheroos-flushing-soviet-164822616.html

this is an interesting thing, I hadn't thought about. A lot of countries are going to have hi end NATO arms, and Russia, I'm sure would rather see them with Com Block weapons.

 

[tvstrip]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-weapon-switcheroos-flushing-soviet-164822616.html

this is an interesting thing, I hadn't thought about. A lot of countries are going to have hi end NATO arms, and Russia, I'm sure would rather see them with Com Block weapons.

I always felt that was a huge advantage for guys like the Indian Armed Forces. They aren't tied down for procurement, so if you look at their inventory, they literally have Russian British, French, Israeli and of course, US jets/helicopters, tanks, etc, along with some Indian designs too.

You not only can take advantage of whatever vehicles are best for the job, but your soldiers are also well prepared since they've been trained on vehicles that the enemy is likely to use. They know the ins & outs and capabilities of every vehicle they encounter.

... or at least, on paper. The reality is that they more of a "jack of all trades, master of none" - just look at their military scorecard and it's not too impressive. But if they did get their shit together, or another country with a competent military training regimen had that kind of inventory, it could be a formidable force.