I know. I was agreeing with you.
While illegal immigration is a huge part of the problem for California, it is by no means the only problem.
...The beginnings of California's current fiscal problems are the result of the energy crisis earlier this decade. Like many other states California's fiscal problems were exacerbated by the high gas prices and it's depressing effect on the sales of other goods and services.
To lay at the feet of illegals ALL of California's fiscal problems is fairly ignorant IMO.
In proper context, this is like saying for example...crime in general is a problem. Well, yeah but to say crime is crippling our society to the point that we can't function is absurd.
Perhaps, but nobody is saying that.
They aren't saying it's ALL due to illegal immigration (at least I'm not), any more than you are saying it is ALL due to "the energy crisis earlier this decade."
However, it appears they were saying illegal immigration is a larger factor than "the energy crisis earlier this decade."
Aren't they correct in this?
Also while illegals don't pay income taxes in many cases the impact of their spending should not simply be thought of in the linear terms of sales tax.
Spending is a logarithmic function in an economy. e.g. spendings impact on demand, demand's impact on production, production's impact creating more jobs, more jobs' impact of on spending, sales tax, more jobs, etc.
The answer to that is more complicated but the short answer has already been given.
Paul Krugman already indicated the aggregate result in the link provided above...
"...the net benefits to the U.S. economy from immigration, aside from the large gains to the immigrants themselves, are small."
While nationally the impact of immigration can be about a wash (and then only primarily from the standpoint of the federal government and some wealthy native citizens)
....in California's case it most certainly is not.
State governments in general are primarily impacted negatively as are certain industry sectors and poorer and low-skilled native citizens.
"States pay most of the cost of providing public services to immigrants ... " (CFR page 25)
"1980-2000 immmigration contributed to a decrease in average U.S. wages of 3 percent" (CFR page 20)
"1980-2000 wages of low skilled workers without a high school degree fell 9 percent as a result of immigration" (CFR page 20)
I am not sure exactly to what "logarithmic function" you are referring.
I can tell you how the U.S. Council on Foreign Relations performed the calculation.
To calculate illegal immigration's impact on GDP, as you might imagine, is complicated and is not done very often.
However the CFR did such an analysis in 2007 based mainly on data from 1996. I will summarize it here.
The Economic Logic of Illegal Immigration
By Gordon Howard Hanson, Council on Foreign Relations
Benefits and Costs of Immigration - pages 19 -26
http://books.google.com/books?id=FJoXbhBivAwC
==> (Pretax income gains from immigration + net tax contributions) = = Estimate of the net impact of immigration on the U.S economy
==>Net Tax Contributions = (Tax payments - Value of Government Services Used)
In 1996 immigration surplus was .1 percent of GDP (Borjas - Heavens Door)
(or about $100 per native household)
http://press.princeton.edu/titles/6677.html
And while the national fiscal burden was .2 percent of GDP ($200 per household) - California's was ($1200 per household) or 6 times as high.
CFR gives several reasons for why California is much higher than the national average. "The impact of immigration on California is more negative because immigrant households in the state:
a) Are more numerous relative to the native population.
b) Have more children causing them to make greater use of public education
c) Have lower incomes leading them to pay less tax and make greater use of public assistance"
(and on the page 22)
d) Are less skilled
e) Have a higher percentage without at least a high school education
and f) California offers more generous benefits
"
The immigrants that account for the negative fiscal impact of California and the United States as a whole are primarily individuals with
low skill levels. (
This includes both legal and
illegal immigrants)"
The above reasons leading to California's negative net impact of immigration are likely even more significant now than they were in 1996.
==> In 1996 illegal immigrants numbered 5 million compared to over 12 million today.
==> California's illegal immigrants are primarily low-skilled workers therefore...
==> California now not only has a larger number of total low-skilled workers (the ones that the CFR found had a greater negative fiscal impact) but also a greater number relative to the native population.