2022 US Midterm Election Forecast

[gmase]

With Election Day only a couple weeks away, what is your forecast? In the event of a 50/50 Senate, Dems would retain control.

Will the Democrats lose both houses of Congress or will the Republicans win both?

The Republicans can finally take over again and solve the urgent problems we are facing. They will be Making America Great Again.

My prediction:
House: R 227 | 208 D
Senate: R 51 | 49 D

 

[tvstrip]

@gmase As you know a lot about the subject, and every seat literally counts (esp in the Senate), maybe you can spotlight some prominent dems/reps whose seats are up for grabs?

 

[Little Red Wagon Repairman]

Seems close enough that I'll wait and see what side of the bed America gets up on Election Day Morning. I've already voted and mailed my stack of ballots.

 

[gmase]

Seems close enough that I'll wait and see what side of the bed America gets up on Election Day Morning. I've already voted and mailed my stack of ballots.

No all-nighter?

@gmase As you know a lot about the subject, and every seat literally counts (esp in the Senate), maybe you can spotlight some prominent dems/reps whose seats are up for grabs?

There are 4 tight races prone for flipping: AZ, GA, NV, and PA. Assuming Fetterman wins in PA (+1 D) and the Republicans flip 2 of the other 3 (likely GA and NV), the Republicans get the one they need.

 

[Little Red Wagon Repairman]

No all-nighter?

Only because of my insomnia. It's actually gonna rain in LA on Election Day. I mailed in my ballots so I'll just check out the fallout on the TV.

I think my most important votes were for Mayor and Sheriff. I went with 2 Democrats; Rick Caruso and Alex Villanueva.

 

[gmase]

Since we are in a Republican county, we were able to safely put our ballots into the dropbox without fear. No monitors were nearby - other than an oddly parked black SUV with a guy on his cellphone. 🤷‍♂️

I have been researching the Gilded Age as we approach this election and 2024. Before the great 1894 election when the Democrats lost 100 seats in the House and 4 in the Senate (losing houses of Congress for the first time in a mid-term election) , the great Thomas Reed (R-ME) said:

“The Democratic mortality will be so great …. that their dead will be buried in trenches and marked unknown.”

This year will be a similar debacle. My only hope is that Trump does not replicate Grover Cleveland's accomplishment.

 

[Little Red Wagon Repairman]

Keep the faith, buddy. You just never know with elections. I voted for a couple of Dems myself.

 

[gmase]

Keep the faith, buddy. You just never know with elections. I voted for a couple of Dems myself.

... and I a few Republicans. Being in a predominately red suburban county, it is difficult to avoid doing so. (In a few races there was only one candidate anyway.) The primary elections were more important as we needed to choose the more sane Republican.

No need to keep any faith - being realistic is more important. With Biden's 2020 win the Republicans were odds-on favorites to retake the House in 2022. I thought January 6th would help the Democratic cause, but - alas - it was not to be. The Senate is a bit of surprise though. Most voters seem to be voting on short-term cyclical issues (e.g., gas, inflation, etc.) while overlooking some longer-term issues related to rights. Since the Senate appears to be a toss-up, we will need to wait for the votes to be counted. Georgia may even get another run-off election to decide the Senate.

 

[Little Red Wagon Repairman]

Many people are good but they also have different priorities and what they demand from their public servants. I'm a crime, inflation, and gas prices guy. I care about rights too with the most important one being my wife's right to walk the streets safely.

 

[gmase]

Many people are good but they also have different priorities and what they demand from their public servants. I'm a crime, inflation, and gas prices guy. I care about rights too with the most important one being my wife's right to walk the streets safely.

You should be really pissed at corporate America and Big Oil then. They got some nice tax breaks from the politicians, then jacked up prices. Apparently, the cuts weren’t enough for them.

My streets are safe. Yours?

 

[D-rock]

Many people are good but they also have different priorities and what they demand from their public servants. I'm a crime, inflation, and gas prices guy. I care about rights too with the most important one being my wife's right to walk the streets safely.

Crime has been going down for decades. You come off as somebody that is well meaning but unreasonably paranoid at best, and just a nutcase at worse. I don't say that as an insult. It's just reality. Plus, if memory serves me well, wasn't it you who at one point claimed you were a trust fund baby? Why would you even live in a place where that's an issue? It doesn't make logical sense. Hell California is safer than Texas or Florida. Blue states are safer than red states, and most countries on the left are safer than those on the right. If you ever actually cared about crime you would advocate for economic progressivism as that does more to stop it than any fire and brimstone law and order stuff.

Not to mention that you support people that are actually worse on those issues, or at least won't really have any more control of them than anybody else.

Can you imagine decades from now somebody asking, "Hey, just wondering, all that time ago why did you support people that tried to destroy our democratic republic, pushed people into poverty and misery for the sake of rich, were run by hate and bigotry, took away more and more of people's rights that didn't involve a gun, were afraid of trans and gay people like the idiots that were afraid of women and blacks before them, didn't want children to learn about logic and critical thinking skills, and helped the world and it's climate burn." And you respond...

"Yeah, I know all that stuff was bad and all, and it was obvious those people were headed in that direction, butt....I thought inflation and gas prices were high in 2022 so I supported them anyhow." It sounds very stupid when looked on like that doesn't it? It's almost one step away from claiming "He made the trains run on time."

So, no I hate to burst your bubble, and hold up that bothsiderism stuff, but people who support that aren't "good". You out of all the conservative people here I gave an iota more respect to because you were less likely to delude yourself and able to admit you do things mainly based on your own selfishness above any other concern. You were less likely to pretend you were "good", so why the hell are you bullshiting yourself now?

 

[Little Red Wagon Repairman]

Have you seen what Los Angeles has deteriorated to? How recently have you been here? I mentioned my most important votes were for Mayor and Sheriff.

I’m just fine seeing out my own window. Thanks for your concern about my sanity though. My neighbors have a better opinion of me.

 

[gmase]

As Tip O’Neil used to say “All politics is local.”

 

[tvstrip]

Having seen all of these candidates clamoring to be endorsed by trump, or even having him at the rallies, do the majority of GOP voters really want him? Or is that just the media focusing on the deep red states where he is still popular and skewing the narrative?

I would think that a standard GOP voter might feel a little uneasy about supporting trump at this point, or at the very least, that his endorsement means shit. There are plenty of moderate Dem voters who aren't happy with Joe, so you don't have to go full trumpeter to sway them. And the full trumpistas are likely to vote GOP so long as he doesn't disassociate himself from the party, so I just don't get why they need to push that hard to the extreme right.

 

[gmase]

This hedge fund guy seems to have had enough Trump. I’d bet his company that if Trump got the 2024 nomination he would change his mind.

https://www.politico.com/amp/news/2022/11/05/gop-megadonor-desantis-24-ken-griffin-00065274

 

[gmase]

Some fun trivia about Michigan: You can bring your firearm into a polling location, but you cannot bring in your beer.

 

[Mr. Daystar]

That's good, you shouldn't be carrying a gun while drinking anyway. I also don't believe any state or city allow you to drink or have open containers in public, unless it's a street fair or something like that.

 

[Little Red Wagon Repairman]

I say they should allow either both or neither. If somebody tries to sneak in with a beer let him know he got caught by handing him a pistol.

 

[tvstrip]

I'm pretty sure the rest of the democratic world is jealous that the US can generate this much excitement over elections which don't even decide the leader of the country. .

 

[johnjjjohn]

I'm pretty sure the rest of the democratic world is jealous that the US can generate this much excitement over elections which don't even decide the leader of the country. .

In europe most of the times the general election is tied to head of state. So ... nothing really compareable to midterms and the general election gets quite a huge excitment cause presidents/head of state arent as strong as in the USA