The presidential election prediction thread

[sean miguel]

Early voting starts as early as next month so now is as as good a time a time as any.

I don't think the debates are going to be a game changer and whatever wikileaks releases in October isn't going to matter, not with this electorate. Even with an ideal candidate, the GOP has little to no room for error on the electoral college map. Every must-win swing state Trump is down in. And I don't buy the claim that Trump is underpolling.

My prediction: Hillary wins in a rout.

Gawd, I hope I'm wrong.

 

[FOUser#4510856320198a]

Early voting starts as early as next month so now is as as good a time a time as any.

I don't think the debates are going to be a game changer and whatever wikileaks releases in October isn't going to matter, not with this electorate. Even with an ideal candidate, the GOP as little to no room for error on the electoral college map. Every must-win swing state Trump is down in. And I don't buy the claim that Trump is underpolling.

My prediction: Hillary wins in a rout.

Gawd, I hope I'm wrong.

I think you're right. I never thought Trump would actually get in. I'm one of the foil-hatters that believes that there are about 43 very, very wealthy Americans (and evidently not a few imports - thanks, Hil - I kid, you pantywaist libs, lighten up!) that decide the national election, key gubernatorial races, the Senate, etc. Big money, always protecting itself and the status quo. The Ross Perots are fun to flirt with, but you're marrying who they say you're marrying, and Trump's peacocking made them too uncomfortable from the start. It was always Clinton's, after none of the GOP could outshout Trump. The devil you know, and Jesus is she that.

 

[Straight Shooter]

Early voting starts as early as next month so now is as as good a time a time as any.

I don't think the debates are going to be a game changer and whatever wikileaks releases in October isn't going to matter, not with this electorate. Even with an ideal candidate, the GOP has little to no room for error on the electoral college map. Every must-win swing state Trump is down in. And I don't buy the claim that Trump is underpolling.

My prediction: Hillary wins in a rout.

Gawd, I hope I'm wrong.

You're buying the mainstream media's bs. The polls are all wrong. They have him losing in the polls but in reality he's actually winning. People are afraid to come out as Trump supporters and so they're not telling the pollsters because of the backlash they'll receive. These undercover Trump voters aren't being accounted for in the polls but come November they will be

 

[Johan]

You're buying the mainstream media's bs. The polls are all wrong. They have him losing in the polls but in reality he's actually winning. People are afraid to come out as Trump supporters and so they're not telling the pollsters because of the backlash they'll receive. These undercover Trump voters aren't being accounted for in the polls but come November they will be

Hitlery is gonna steal the election.

A vast majority of US citizens are Trump supporters but the polls are rigged, they are lying to people.
On election day, most voters will vote for Trump but crooked Hillary and her staff already made sure that the people's biding won't count. Her staff have already rigged the election

 

[Jack Davenport]

You're buying the mainstream media's bs. The polls are all wrong. They have him losing in the polls but in reality he's actually winning. People are afraid to come out as Trump supporters and so they're not telling the pollsters because of the backlash they'll receive. These undercover Trump voters aren't being accounted for in the polls but come November they will be

You left out the part about pollsters who quit looking for Trump voters and aren't even being counted anymore.

 

[sean miguel]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map.html

Not even counting the toss up states, Clinton already is over the 270 threshold if we go by solid, likely and leaning.

Trump would have to sweep every single toss up state and would still be 4 electoral votes short. He'd have to snag one of Clinton's leanings. Which one would he have the best shot at? Wisconsin?

And he'd eek out a victory.



and why the fuck is Georgia in play? And I'm moving to Idaho.

 

[Jack Davenport]

I'll make my prediction later...

Right now it's looking good for Clinton.

She can kill puppies and club baby seals and it wouldn't matter to most voters

Trump can close but he can't have any more missteps.

 

[Supafly]

I am going on a wild guess

 

[sean miguel]

that's my girl.

 

[Jack Davenport]

I am going on a wild guess

The first campaign sign/slogan/sticker I have ever seen that didn't use a combination of red, white and blue.

Hmmm

 

[Luxman]

"As I’ve stated before, I still live with the regret of voting for Ralph Nader in 2000. Two wars, thousands of dead or wounded American soldiers and trillions of wasted dollars later, the futility of trying to elect a weak third party candidate in a tight election isn’t being emphasized enough."

Those trillions of dollars wasted on the wars could have been used to better educate children.
Education is the key, a highly educated population is more prosperous and happier.
Knowledge is power, the more you know the easier it is to learn new things and life is less of a struggle.

http://modernliberals.com/jill-stein-no-bernie-sanders/

Rich Republicans and Democrats secretly fund 3rd parties to try and decrease votes for the opposing team.
US politics is like a sporting event, most people don't care who deserves to win, they just want their team to win so they can gloat.

There should be a small intelligence test on the ballot, and if you fail, your ballot is discarded.

 

[sean miguel]

There should be a small intelligence test on the ballot, and if you fail, your ballot is discarded.

If that were so, which party do you think that would favor? Be honest.

And yes, someone will counter with a walmart honey boo boo clip but we're talking sheer numbers including brain dead millennials.

 

[Luxman]

If that were so, which party do you think that would favor? Be honest.

I was just ranting, I know it would be difficult if not impossible to create a test that would be fair.
That's why I said that education should be a priority. There are many ways to educate people.
Maybe start incorporating useful practical facts or examples into popular tv shows, to educate the masses.
Similar to Sesame Street, but for teens or adults.
For example, I've been watching the new series Braindead, starring the hot Mary Elizabeth Winstead, it's a good show.
I've learned a lot about how the federal government functions by watching this show.

 

[Johan]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map.html

Not even counting the toss up states, Clinton already is over the 270 threshold if we go by solid, likely and leaning.

Trump would have to sweep every single toss up state and would still be 4 electoral votes short. He'd have to snag one of Clinton's leanings. Which one would he have the best shot at? Wisconsin?

And he'd eek out a victory.

South Carolina is no longer "leaning Trump", it's now a tossup-state.

 

[sean miguel]

South Carolina is no longer "leaning Trump", it's now a tossup-state.

If South Carolina is a toss up state it's over.

 

[cometbird]

I don't trust the voting machines, they don't smell good, so that means unless Hillary dies or gets arrested she will win

 

[Jack Davenport]

If South Carolina is a toss up state it's over.

No way Mouth Carolina goes for Clinton.

These are August polls. Early to mid October is when you pay attention to polls.

They don't have to be correct now.

Another thing that is not being mentioned, most polling firms have eliminated the "No preference" option in their questioning this cycle. It's either/or which could be a huge skewing factor, for either Clinton or Trump.

The only prediction I am comfortable making right now is that the race will be too close to call come October.

 

[Jagger69]

Way too early to tell regardless of Clinton's current lead in the polls. Lots can happen in 3 months. Two very weak and controversial nominees make the potential for a volatile election outcome a real possibility.

Trump has to find a way to broaden his appeal beyond his base. 40% of the electorate is not enough to get him to the White House unless he books a tour. Kelleyanne Conway is a great improvement regarding guidance at the field campaign level although the Steve Bannon appointment isn't consistent with any sort of outreach strategy.