As I posted in the original thread about this, I had hoped it would be destroyed upon reentry or by us. Logic tells anyone that if it fell to earth even in pieces that damage/injury would be inevitable, unless it hit the ocean. Even then the fuel damage could not be avoided. They must do something.
There is an overwhelming possibility if it comes down whole that the tank will survive (among other things).
If we strike it with a hit-to-kill (HTK) exo-atmospheric kill vehicle (EKV) and open it up, there is an overwhelming possibility it will completely break up.
Simple probability. There is "nothing special" about re-entry into the Earth's atmosphere. Hell, it's high school physics 101.
The more surface area and limited volume, the more something breaks up. The more unexposed volume, the less it breaks up. The tank is at the center of the unit, protected the most (for obvious reasons in space).
It's orbital velocities (Mach 20+) hitting air that increasingly thickens. The question is how much burns up before it slows down enough.
Striking it kinetically with a EKV will most certainly increase the surface area and make it a far greater possibility -- especially it struck in the fuel tank, which we have three (3) attempts to do so.
I honestly don't know :dunno:
I honestly
do.
First off, the probability of injury is low. Let's get that straight. It's not a "grave threat." I don't think anyone has done that. The administration has been brutally honest about that.
Secondly, this is
not a "realistic missile defense" test. We A)
know the trajectory
exactly, B) we know exactly where it's going to be, when and can "try for it" multiple times, and C) it's much bigger than a typical RV (re-entry vehicle), even one with a nuclear warhead.
No one in their right mind is calling this a "test" of "missile defense." It's
unrealistic ("too easy") conditions all around.
But the reality is, we have the capability, and we can show we can use it for peaceful purposes. This is a real nice capability to have for breaking up satellites that will have portions that come down whole.
It likely started with one engineer who said, "hey, why don't we try blowing it up with a SM-3?"
And some astrophysicists probably chimed in, "yeah, there is no danger of space junk lingering around."
And another engineer said, "and yeah, we'll get multiple passes too."
And then some statistician perked up, "and we not only get multiple chances to hit it with each orbit, but we have the exact, accurate trajectory."
Again, media meets mass ignorance = assumptions.