They have had more contributers to their big league club than I think you realize. Not every "prospect" is going to pan out in the big leagues, and more importantly not every "prospect" is going to put up Ryan Braun or Evan Longoria numbers. A lot of their young players have contributed, just not at all star caliber (Hello, they are in the WC race this year)
Its impossible to tell how a player is going to make it in the big leagues until they get there and play. Thats why they are called prospects. Every team has 10-15 potential MLB players yet only 3 maybe 4 ever make it to the club full time.
You have guys like Fred Lewis, Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez, Sandavol, Ishikawa, Schierholtz, etc...
I am by no means saying they have the best farm or have had the best farm system in the last 10 years, but there is a reason they are in the wild card chase this year.
Like I said not every guy is going to pan out in the big leagues, for every one guy who puts up SOLID numbers in the big leagues there were 10 prospects in the same farm system who just didnt cut it.
I'm not debating that the farm team has contributed. With 19 of the 25 people on the active roster on the big club, of course they're going to contribute
something. There's absolutely no expectation that they'll all be elite, but the problem is that only 5 of them are above league average statistically,
5. That's an awful proportion. The Royals, who at first glance probably wouldn't be considered to have a good farm system, have produced 9 above average prospects in that same time period. And don't get me wrong, the Giants have had about 12 people in the same time period that didn't pan out, that is, the guys with the big club are supposed to be the best the farm has to offer, and that doesn't reflect well on the farm system.
Just to give you an idea of how good some of those players are (in terms of runs above the league average):
Lewis -10 offensively, +1 defensively
Ishikawa -14 offensively, +9 defensively
Schierholtz -14 offensively, 0 defensively
That's absolutely awful. Sandoval, Romo, Cain and Lincecum are the only prospects that have come from the Giants system that are above league average out of the 19 other Giants prospects on the 25 man roster. Let me repeat that, I'm not talking about prospects that have become elite players, I'm talking prospects that have turned out to be
league average. And it's actually not as difficult as one might assume to project prospects to be at least league average in this day and age. Prospects with respectable K/BB ratios, OPS numbers, and for pitchers FIP tend to become at least league average, and more often great ML players.
If you want to talk about the Wild Card race, or moreover the contention for the division, you're right, there is a reason they are in the hunt: pitching. As I've said, I have no problem granting that Cain, Lincecum, and Romo have been excellent coming from the Giants farm system, but let's examine the others in the rotation a little more closely. Last year, the rotation not named Lincecum or Cain was: Sanchez (FIP of 3.85, which is good), Zito (FIP of 4.87 which is horrendous, and Correia (FIP of 5.10 which was beyond atrocious). Compare to this year the starting rotations (outside of Lincecum and Cain) FIP: Zito (4.36) Johnson (4.83) and Sanchez (4.32). The pitching has improved by on average about a run and a half from last year to this. The Giants offense has been nearly identical to last year, it's just getting more attention now that the entire rotation has performed solidly.
That's the reason the Giants are in the hunt right now. But again, it just shows that the Giants don't have a good farm system. Add to that the fact that they just within the last week traded two of their top 10 prospects for minimal upgrades, and you're asking for disaster for the ML team.
2. i dont think the dodgers are necessarily a good playoff team...the phillies as we already know can do it
There really isn't such a thing as a "good playoff team". It's relatively easy to project performance in relation to making the playoffs primarily because you've got 162 games to see how players will perform. This isn't true about the playoffs, as it's pretty much a crap shoot with such a small sample size.
Obtaining Cliff Lee, does that make the Phil the team to beat in the NL? I still think the dodgers are the best team in the MLB. Now I just heard some not so great news. Giants have traded for Freddy Sanchez and gave up Tim Alderson in the deal. That sounds kinda steep for a really good player. I would have preferred a deal that included Alderson in a package for something better. Alderson was the #4 prospect in the Giants organization, is Freddy Sanchez worth it? As for the Giants anything is better than what they have at second base right now. Dont know how to feel about the deal. All along they said Alderson was untouchable. Well, playing for '09.
The Cliff Lee deal was an absolute robbery for the Phillies. They gave up a +4 win pitcher for two decent, not great infield prospects, a solid pitching prospect with a lower upside in Carrasco and a good teen arm who's got injury issues. All four of the guys going to Cleveland have significant question marks in terms of projectability, and for someone worth so much as a starter, there was really no reason not to get more, or just a better return.
As for the Giants, this is really a bad trade. I just can't see why they made this deal. I understand that they need offense desperately, but Sanchez isn't good enough to justify this. Sanchez is at .296/.334/.442 this year, but consider that the Giants already have a guy putting up very similar numbers at .284/.314/.431. That player? Juan Uribe. The Giants just traded within a week their #2 and #3 pitching prospects for a league average first baseman, and a slight upgrade at second. The Giants are definitely going for it this year, and there is a very good chance Sabean will pay for it with his job.
That sounds more like Pittsburgh's yearly plan.
The Pirates are doing pretty well right now stocking up on high upside guys in the minors for their aging veterans. The Pirates may just be competitive in 3 or so years.