Thanks, I knew it was something like that.Still isn't a good return.
Horse Lays Egg in Triple Crown Bid
- Thread starter senob44
- Start date
Thanks, I knew it was something like that.Still isn't a good return.
You guys are right about the betting on Big Brown. The way I see it, betting on that big of a favorite is almost always a sucker's bet. But a lot of people always bet on the favorite no matter what and that's what keeps the odds so tight. If I go to the track, I always bet on a long shot or two, just a $2 bet to take a chance. I find the odds a long shot goes off at often get inflated because no one bets on them. At any given day at most parks, you'll find a horse or two that go off at 99-1. (Or similarly long odds.) I just look in the program and figure out why they are such a long shot. Sometimes they just moved up a grade, sometimes they're untried at the certain distance of the race. Occasionally it will be their first race ever (maiden) and then of course sometimes it's because they've never won before. I try and make a sensible decision and then bet a $2 or $5 show bet on the long shot. If you bet show, you get money if the horse comes in 1, 2, or 3. If the horse wins, you won't get as much money as if you had placed a win bet, but if you had bet to win and he finishes 2 or 3 you're shit out of luck. My father always told me that to bet to win is a sucker's bet.
Of course if you bet a lot on long shots, you will sometimes be urging your horse across the finish line when the winner is already headed for the winner's circle,
but in most races the horses all give it a good go. It's really not that strange for a long shot to finish in the top 3 and that's what I like to bank on.
Sorry to go off on a tangent here, but hopefully someone will get something out of this.
Of course if you bet a lot on long shots, you will sometimes be urging your horse across the finish line when the winner is already headed for the winner's circle,
but in most races the horses all give it a good go. It's really not that strange for a long shot to finish in the top 3 and that's what I like to bank on.Sorry to go off on a tangent here, but hopefully someone will get something out of this.
Well, if you have any questions Legz, you can post them in here or send me a PM. I'll do my best to answer or else find the answer somewhere if I don't know it. I've probably been to the track about 30 times in my life, ever since I was a little kid. I've been mostly to the Meadowlands racetrack, but I've also been to Belmont (NY), Monmouth Park (NJ), Aqueduct (NY) and Monticello (NY). Most of what I've watched is harness racing (where the horses pull the driver in a little sulky behind them), but I've been to plenty of thoroughbred too. The Meadowlands, by the way, is the site of the annual Hambletonian, which is generally considered the premier race in harness racing. Though the Hambletonian purse is in the millions, generally the purses are not as large in harness racing as they are in thoroughbred, though the betting strategies are basically the same. If you make the right bet, you could end up winning more money than the horse that won the race! Whether it's the Kentucky Derby or a claiming race (where prospective owners can actually purchase the horses that are racing after they see them go) the betting is done the same way. So, like I said, if you want to learn, I'll gladly answer for you whatever I can.
Legz, in answer to your question, if you'd bet $1000 on Da Tara you'd have gotten back a total of $39,000 (38K profit plus your 1K bet).
Really good posts, senob.
Thanks.
I'm at odds (no pun intended lol) with the "to bet to win is a suckers bet" philosophy, though.
Granted I haven't actually been to a racetrack since the 1980s, but during a stretch of 3 years in my 20s I went every single day :eek: so I've achieved post-graduate status :1orglaugh
Betting to place and show is ok, even recommended, in most situations. But such bets should always, without exception, be accompanied by at least a token win bet. Why? Because 1) that's the only bet you know going in exactly what your return will be. place and show amounts depend on which other horses end up finishing in the money. 2) that's where you've got the biggest potential payout by far. 3) nothing sucks more than betting $2 to show on a 30-1 shot, having him win, and collecting a measley $9 (or thereabouts) for your show bet, instead of that plus $62 for the win.
Granted longshots don't win often (I'm sure you know that favorites win 33% of all races and have for ages - an amazingly consistent statistic, though not a profitable one since betting on favorites only is guaranteed to produce a long term loss), but if you fancy a longshot you've got to give yourself a chance to fully capitalize on it.
Really good posts, senob.
Thanks.
I'm at odds (no pun intended lol) with the "to bet to win is a suckers bet" philosophy, though.
Granted I haven't actually been to a racetrack since the 1980s, but during a stretch of 3 years in my 20s I went every single day :eek: so I've achieved post-graduate status :1orglaugh
Betting to place and show is ok, even recommended, in most situations. But such bets should always, without exception, be accompanied by at least a token win bet. Why? Because 1) that's the only bet you know going in exactly what your return will be. place and show amounts depend on which other horses end up finishing in the money. 2) that's where you've got the biggest potential payout by far. 3) nothing sucks more than betting $2 to show on a 30-1 shot, having him win, and collecting a measley $9 (or thereabouts) for your show bet, instead of that plus $62 for the win.
Granted longshots don't win often (I'm sure you know that favorites win 33% of all races and have for ages - an amazingly consistent statistic, though not a profitable one since betting on favorites only is guaranteed to produce a long term loss), but if you fancy a longshot you've got to give yourself a chance to fully capitalize on it.
This is mostly correct, but far less so for horse racing (and poker). In the latter two skill is a much greater factor than in casino games because you're not betting against the house, you're betting against other players, with the house making their profit off of a fixed, lesser % agent rake that has no stake in which player wins.
^ Good point, bodie. I've never really thought of it that way. That's a good way of hedging your bet. (Is really hedging the accurate term there?) Perhaps, next time I'll place unorthodox "win and show" bets on the same horse. I've known people who have believed in betting "win, place and show" whenever they bet, but I always steered away from that, because if the money is tight, all the sudden you're now placing three bets per race, but it seems like you're only making one. Could lose money faster than you realize. Another bad habit I see people make is to bet on every race. I try to take it on a race by race basis. For instance, any race with more than 10 horses I never bet the favorite. Just feel there's all the more of a chance for jostling and traffic and situations generally for the best horse to not win. I think big fields like that are good races to choose a longshot. Another scenario would be a field of 6-8 horses where a couple of them are going off at about 4-1 and the other half at 6-1 to 8-1. (I know it doesn't happen often) Now some people think it's a great race to bet since you can get 4-1 odds on the favorite. But I stay away from those races, because a)there's no longshot bet and b)I feel it is just too unpredictable. None of those horses would be a "surprise" winner. Plus basically, you've got two favorites. I hate races where there are two favorites. It seems to me that longshots almost never win those. And another thing, I'm a total sucker for "1 and 1a" type entries. I just think if you've got one owner, stable and trainer who has TWO horses in the race, if they get in a position to dominate, then you're set. They can control the race. No matter what the odds, if the favorite is part of a two-horse entry, I always bet that to win. And that's pretty much the only time I bet win, until now that I've got your strategy.
Ok well lets start with betting to win. You take the dollar amount of your bet, and multiply it by the odds, and you get your payoff. The amount you are paid is the payoff PLUS the amount of your original bet.
When multiplying by the odds, think of the odds as a fraction. 7-1 odds = 7/1=7; 5-2 odds = 5/2=2.5
If the horse is 5-2 and you bet $2 to win, and he wins, you get altogether $7 back.
The payouts for "place" (2nd) or "show" (3rd) is much more difficult to explain and perhaps bodie might be able to explain it better. They basically take all the money that was bet on all horses to place, take out a set percentage for themselves, then divide the money amongst all winning place bets. Same thing with the show bets. I hope I'm explaining this right. If there are very many place bets, and not many show bets, occasionally the payoff for a show bet can be higher than the payoff for the place bet, if I'm not mistaken. Your payoffs for place and show bets totally depend on how many people bet for those positions.
Good point about the control issue Legz, although it's possible to develop an even bigger knowledge edge at horseracing than poker - but you have to study and work your ass off to get there.
Senob literally speaking a hedge bet = a higher % insurance bet, so ordinarily that would be the show bet. But in this case if the win bet insures you won't run somebody off the road if your 30-1 shot wins and you only bet him to show I think it also applies as a hedge :1orglaugh
I understand what you're saying, and that is intimidating. There were times when I didn't have enough money to spread on a race the way I wanted to, especially since I usually liked to mix straight bets with exotic bets. When that happens you've just got to make a tough call about where to allot what assets you have.
I think the win/show thing will work for you. If you're a decent handicapper you'll catch enough good priced horses to profit from the extra investment on the win end.
You're right. That's a very bad habit.
I'll bet a favorite in a big field if I think he's the best horse, but your observation about racing luck potentially playing a bigger role is a sound consideration. So is your observation about extremely contentious races with narrow odds spreads. Like you, I often passed on those.
Senob literally speaking a hedge bet = a higher % insurance bet, so ordinarily that would be the show bet. But in this case if the win bet insures you won't run somebody off the road if your 30-1 shot wins and you only bet him to show I think it also applies as a hedge :1orglaugh
I understand what you're saying, and that is intimidating. There were times when I didn't have enough money to spread on a race the way I wanted to, especially since I usually liked to mix straight bets with exotic bets. When that happens you've just got to make a tough call about where to allot what assets you have.
I think the win/show thing will work for you. If you're a decent handicapper you'll catch enough good priced horses to profit from the extra investment on the win end.
You're right. That's a very bad habit.
I'll bet a favorite in a big field if I think he's the best horse, but your observation about racing luck potentially playing a bigger role is a sound consideration. So is your observation about extremely contentious races with narrow odds spreads. Like you, I often passed on those.
Smittmaestro
Center of the fothermucking universe
My sympathies to the poor souls who bet on Big Brown thinking he was gonna be a Triple Crowner.
At least he fared better than Eight Belles!
-cs™
At least he fared better than Eight Belles!
-cs™
Legzman
what the fuck you lookin at?
I've already studied and practiced to gain a working knowledge of the game. I'm no where near as good as world series of poker. But I can clean house with my friends. Takes even more skill to do it when your drunk! :glugglug:
I don't think I'll ever take the time to become a serious horse race fanatic. But I'd like to know enough that maybe someday I can place some bets with some kind of knowledge.
Can I place a bet that the horses will have a good time?
Legzman
what the fuck you lookin at?
Maybe not while they're racing but once they are retired and put in a stud farm, they will have a fucking blast!
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