Afghanistan

[tvstrip]

I think it's worth talking about what's going on there. After 2 decades, the US is leaving and the Taliban is already taking over.
You have kids who were born after the war started who are now legal age. You can't blame the US for pulling out, although they were the ones that went in there in the first place (even if it was justified).

It's actually impressive how the Taliban is doing this. You literally had EVERY major military power in the world come in and absolutely decimate your forces, kick you out of power and force you into hiding for 2 decades, continually pounding your forces with cutting edge tech while you are still using cold war weapons and had no official support from any other country.

Soon as the US withdrawal started, you somehow managed to start an offensive, and in 3 months, you've taken over 65% of the country. Possibly the only reason why they haven't taken over the entire country already is because of the agreement with the US that they won't touch their forces and don't want to make them change course about the withdrawal, and are purposely holding off until September when they leave. By that point, you can probably assume they will have just been poised to strike the second the last US plane takes off and there will be a blitz that would impress even Rommel. Even Mao's communist forces weren't this effective. Either they're brilliant military strategists or occupation forces did a really shitty job of training the local military, despite having all these years to train as well as actual combat experience.

The world is pretty much in agreeance that the Taliban will be ruling the country and no one is going back in there to change that. The Brits have officially said they're prepared to work with them as a legitimate government as long as they abide by international standards.

So what do you think? Do Afghan forces stand a chance, or is it a forgone conclusion the Taliban will be in power by Xmas (or even Halloween)? And if they are, what do you think they will do? Are they smart enough not to become a terrorist training camp and risk another coalition war? Will they change they way they rule, knowing that the Afghan people now know what freedom feels like (and taking that away now will likely start another civil war)?

 

[Little Red Wagon Repairman]

Afghanistan is called The Graveyard Of Empires for a reason. That's a hard land to tame. Those cavemen are way smarter than they look.

 

[tvstrip]

So why can't we get more of those cavemen to fight against the Taliban?

 

[Johan]

The Talibans will take Kabul before October. Maybe even before September

they were the ones that went in there in the first place (even if it was justified).

Was it ? I mean, 9/11 wasn't caused by talibans, they just happened to harbor Bin Laden. The war against the talibans did not allowed the Us to captur or kill Bin Laden (he got killed about 8 years after the war ended), Afghanistan never really was at peace and soon the talibans will rule the country once again so I think it's fair to say that the Afghan war is a total failure

Maybe the US should stop acting as if they were some kind of global cops, maybe they should let people in charge of their fate, their country. Offer some help, yes. Take matter into their own hands, no.
As far as I know, France did not sent LaFayette draw the english back to England by himself, he wen't there to help, no to do things on his own. That's why it worked, because Americans had decided to be free

 

[Little Red Wagon Repairman]

So why can't we get more of those cavemen to fight against the Taliban?

I imagine they hedge their bets like we would.

 

[Theopolis Q. Hossenffer]

So here is a little note I wrote for another board i visit that might apply here. or not, up to you:

So much reminds me of the last days of Vietnam. Oh bleep, running around hurry, hurry hurry. Get everyone out. And with the same results. I know this is spitting in the Holy Water but once again another war where hundreds and thousands of Americans die and are maimed for life for no reason at all. Afghanistan, Iraq, Vietnam, in each case we were going to save the World/a Nation/a people, etc. and each time we have failed. Stumbled around until declaring victory and leaving the place usually at least no better off and sometimes worse. After we got one man rule from the White House back in the 1980’s it has been all down hill. Stop it and save the last resort for the last resort.

 

[VillellaMcMeans]

So why can't we get more of those cavemen to fight against the Taliban?

I think it should be considered that the majority of the Afghan people support the Taliban either secretly or openly, alot more than they support the foreign governments or any of the governments that were funded by foreigners.

 

[tvstrip]

The Talibans will take Kabul before October. Maybe even before September


Was it ? I mean, 9/11 wasn't caused by talibans, they just happened to harbor Bin Laden. The war against the talibans did not allowed the Us to captur or kill Bin Laden (he got killed about 8 years after the war ended), Afghanistan never really was at peace and soon the talibans will rule the country once again so I think it's fair to say that the Afghan war is a total failure

Maybe the US should stop acting as if they were some kind of global cops, maybe they should let people in charge of their fate, their country. Offer some help, yes. Take matter into their own hands, no.
As far as I know, France did not sent LaFayette draw the english back to England by himself, he wen't there to help, no to do things on his own. That's why it worked, because Americans had decided to be free

Fair enough - there is some room for debate. However, I think it's agreeable that they did allow OBL to grow his power unchecked, which allowed AQ to pull off 9/11 in the first place as well as grow into the kingpin it was at the time. Whether all the other countries agreed, just felt sorry for 9/11 or were scared to stand against the US is much less clear.

I actually don't think the US (even at the time) thought of themselves as Team America: World Police. They don't act out of morality or justice, they act in their own self interest. Which basically boils down to 2 things: You either have something they want or you pissed them off. Iraq was the former, Afghanistan was the latter. If neither of those apply to you, then you could be the worst dictator in the world, but they won't bother you. Just look at North Korea or several countries in Africa as proof.

Should they be getting involved in such countries? I agree with you that the US (or any country) shouldn't be making that call unilaterally. If the UN didn't have the dumbass veto provisions, then I might say we should leave it up to them. Apart from that, I can't say for sure.

On your point about "leaving it up to the countries", I will say this though: first world nations do have a vested interest. Not because of "justice" or any BS like that though; it's because when you have horrible countries, you will get people fleeing them, and eventually they will be knocking on your door for help. Unless you want to have a reputation of not helping refugees, you're going to have to deal with an influx of refugees which will bring it's own set of issues.

 

[VillellaMcMeans]

Fair enough - there is some room for debate. However, I think it's agreeable that they did allow OBL to grow his power unchecked, which allowed AQ to pull off 9/11 in the first place as well as grow into the kingpin it was at the time. Whether all the other countries agreed, just felt sorry for 9/11 or were scared to stand against the US is much less clear.

I actually don't think the US (even at the time) thought of themselves as Team America: World Police. They don't act out of morality or justice, they act in their own self interest. Which basically boils down to 2 things: You either have something they want or you pissed them off. Iraq was the former, Afghanistan was the latter. If neither of those apply to you, then you could be the worst dictator in the world, but they won't bother you. Just look at North Korea or several countries in Africa as proof.

Should they be getting involved in such countries? I agree with you that the US (or any country) shouldn't be making that call unilaterally. If the UN didn't have the dumbass veto provisions, then I might say we should leave it up to them. Apart from that, I can't say for sure.

On your point about "leaving it up to the countries", I will say this though: first world nations do have a vested interest. Not because of "justice" or any BS like that though; it's because when you have horrible countries, you will get people fleeing them, and eventually they will be knocking on your door for help. Unless you want to have a reputation of not helping refugees, you're going to have to deal with an influx of refugees which will bring it's own set of issues.

Just on your point about america not trying to police the world because they're not about Justice - I have to say your view on policing is flawed, because you believe policing to be about Justice, when really it is about their own interests.

Look at police culture worldwide, they use the propaganda that policing is about Justice, but the reality always shows bullying and oppressing - the few good cops that are want to do good ultimately get bullied and pushed out by the bad.

I agree with you that america always operates in their own best interests not Justice, but they do police the rest of the world - they operate in the same police culture that tells everyone else what to do and when to do it and that they'll do whatever they want and to hell with everyone else.

If that isn't policing the rest of the world not sure what is.

The dumb excuse about weapons of mass destruction is the same shit that pigs tell us - we had to bust into Brianna Taylors house and turn it into a way zone because we just had to. I do what I want to whoever I want because I'm doing this for everyone own good - pig culture.

Anyways, all I'm trying to say is that I agree Justice is the ideal everyone should strive towards - but the truth is that police culture has not honoured the spirit of Justice for a long time already.

The police culture we see now is just a fascist gang culture, in fact other fascist countries like China and Korea and etc all copy american police/pig culture and it's working for them and has spread worldwide because being cop is bullying and powerful and that's what they need to keep power.

Same here in north america, the institution of policing is needed by the government to hold onto power - not for Justice as they want everyone to believe.

 

[VillellaMcMeans]

Fair enough - there is some room for debate. However, I think it's agreeable that they did allow OBL to grow his power unchecked, which allowed AQ to pull off 9/11 in the first place as well as grow into the kingpin it was at the time. Whether all the other countries agreed, just felt sorry for 9/11 or were scared to stand against the US is much less clear.

I actually don't think the US (even at the time) thought of themselves as Team America: World Police. They don't act out of morality or justice, they act in their own self interest. Which basically boils down to 2 things: You either have something they want or you pissed them off. Iraq was the former, Afghanistan was the latter. If neither of those apply to you, then you could be the worst dictator in the world, but they won't bother you. Just look at North Korea or several countries in Africa as proof.

Should they be getting involved in such countries? I agree with you that the US (or any country) shouldn't be making that call unilaterally. If the UN didn't have the dumbass veto provisions, then I might say we should leave it up to them. Apart from that, I can't say for sure.

On your point about "leaving it up to the countries", I will say this though: first world nations do have a vested interest. Not because of "justice" or any BS like that though; it's because when you have horrible countries, you will get people fleeing them, and eventually they will be knocking on your door for help. Unless you want to have a reputation of not helping refugees, you're going to have to deal with an influx of refugees which will bring it's own set of issues.

On your point about the refugees, the best way to solve this is let other countries become modern and rich China - because there is not a influx of Chinese refugees, because China standard of living had risen so that people that aren't persecuted by the police like living there.

Of course there are still people trying to escape China, but those are the persecuted ones, the majority live happily like we do here - worldwide everyone is happy until they get arrested.

When China wasn't as rich as today, there were many trying to escape to america, but wealth and modernization changes that.

The same is true for other countries, look at Vietnam now that they are more wealthy and modernized, there are less Vietnamese refugees trying to escape.

So, less war is the answer to all problems, less war and more business more wealth - then everyone can feed themselves.

 

[Johan]

Damn, that escalated quicker than I thought...

Taliban enters Kabul; Afghan president flees​

The government's defenses have rapidly collapsed.


Taliban fighters entered Kabul on Sunday and sought the unconditional surrender of the central government, officials said, as Afghans and foreigners alike raced for the exit, signaling the end of a 20-year Western experiment aimed at remaking Afghanistan.
Two Afghan officials, meanwhile, said President Ashraf Ghani has left the country. The officials, one from former President Hamid Karzai’s office and another an aide on the Afghan security council, told The Associated Press that Ghani left Sunday. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they weren’t authorized to brief journalists. Ghani left along with his National Security Adviser Hamdullah Mohib and a second close associate. It wasn’t immediately clear where they went.

Civilians fearing that the Taliban could reimpose the kind of brutal rule that all but eliminated women’s rights rushed to leave the country, lining up at cash machines to withdraw their life savings.


Helicopters buzzed overhead to evacuate personnel from the U.S. Embassy, while smoke rose near the compound as staff destroyed important documents. Several other Western missions also prepared to pull their people out.
In a stunning rout, the Taliban seized nearly all of Afghanistan in just over a week, despite the billions of dollars spent by the U.S. and NATO over nearly two decades to build up Afghan security forces.
Just days earlier, an American military assessment estimated it would be a month before the capital would come under insurgent pressure. Instead, the Taliban swiftly defeated, co-opted or sent Afghan security forces fleeing from wide swaths of the country, even though they had some air support from the U.S. military.
Early Sunday, the insurgents entered the outskirts of Kabul but apparently remained outside of the city’s downtown. Sporadic gunfire echoed at times though the streets were largely quiet.
Taliban spokesman Suhail Shaheen told Qatar’s Al-Jazeera English satellite news channel that the insurgents are “awaiting a peaceful transfer of Kabul city.” He declined to offer specifics on any possible negotiations between his forces and the government.
But when pressed on what kind of agreement the Taliban wanted, Shaheen acknowledged that they were seeking an unconditional surrender by the central government.

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/08/15/afghanistan-taliban-kabul-defense-504605

Talibans entering Kabul claiming they are "awaiting a peacefull transfer of power" sound like the Nazis promising "Everything's gonna be ok" as they entrer Warsaw...

 

[Little Red Wagon Repairman]

Damn, that escalated quicker than I thought...


https://www.politico.com/news/2021/08/15/afghanistan-taliban-kabul-defense-504605

Talibans entering Kabul claiming they are "awaiting a peacefull transfer of power" sond like the Nazis promising "Everything's gonna be ok" as they entrer Warsaw...

Yeppers.

 

[tvstrip]

Damn, that escalated quicker than I thought...


https://www.politico.com/news/2021/08/15/afghanistan-taliban-kabul-defense-504605

Talibans entering Kabul claiming they are "awaiting a peacefull transfer of power" sond like the Nazis promising "Everything's gonna be ok" as they entrer Warsaw...

I'm surprised. I thought they really would have held off taking over until the US left. With the US embassy in Kabul, it would have been a high risk attacking the city. But I guess they're taking the position that the US is going to leave no matter what they do, so unless they actively hunt/capture/kill US personnel, they have a carte blanche to do whatever.

 

[VillellaMcMeans]

I'm surprised. I thought they really would have held off taking over until the US left. With the US embassy in Kabul, it would have been a high risk attacking the city. But I guess they're taking the position that the US is going to leave no matter what they do, so unless they actively hunt/capture/kill US personnel, they have a carte blanche to do whatever.

Well, it is their country, and the american embassy is their without their permission to begin with.

 

[Little Red Wagon Repairman]

With all this inflation going on it's nice to see prices falling and collapsing on vacation packages to Kabul.

 

[gmase]

So here is a little note I wrote for another board i visit that might apply here. or not, up to you:

So much reminds me of the last days of Vietnam. Oh bleep, running around hurry, hurry hurry. Get everyone out. And with the same results. I know this is spitting in the Holy Water but once again another war where hundreds and thousands of Americans die and are maimed for life for no reason at all. Afghanistan, Iraq, Vietnam, in each case we were going to save the World/a Nation/a people, etc. and each time we have failed. Stumbled around until declaring victory and leaving the place usually at least no better off and sometimes worse. After we got one man rule from the White House back in the 1980’s it has been all down hill. Stop it and save the last resort for the last resort.

Your usually astute observation is on target.

Unlike Iraq, the mission in Afghanistan was clear at the beginning. [Iraq was clear at the start too, but quickly turned sideways.] We were there to clear the country of Al-Qaeda via disposing of the Taliban. It took awhile, but we did it. Then, we realized the was no political solution and the military war was not going to end, but we continued because we wanted to save face.

Despite the criticism Biden will get, he had the balls to pull the plug. Bush, Obama, and Trump did not. Other than Bush during his first term, I believe second-term Bush, Obama, and Trump knew this was not a winnable war. Much like LBJ and Nixon knew Vietnam was not winnable. Robert McNamara knew it: https://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=106307386

I truly feel terrible for our allies there and the women of Afghanistan. They are being let down by their own country. Say what you want about the U.S. leaving, not many Afghans wanted to fight for their county. Makes you wonder why we should fight for them.

Blinken sums it up well:
https://thehill.com/policy/defense/...-kabul-airport-evacuate-americans-and-afghans
“The idea that the status quo could have been maintained by keeping our forces there, I think, is simply wrong. The fact of the matter is, had the president decided to keep forces in Afghanistan beyond May 1, attacks would have resumed on our forces. The Taliban had not been attacking our forces or NATO during the period from which the agreement was reached to May 1. The offensive you're seeing across the country now to take these provincial capitals would have commenced. And we would have been back at war with the Taliban. And I would probably be on this program today explaining why we were sending tens of thousands of American forces back into Afghanistan and back to war, something the American people simply don't support. That is the -- that is the reality. That's the context that we're dealing with."

 

[D-rock]

If after 20 damn years the situations is such that things fell apart this badly then that goes to show there was nothing that could have ever been reasonably done to make things better. There was no "win condition" for the US, and there almost certainly was never going to be one. The only way things would have been stable is if the US was willing to stay there forever, and that is not acceptable in any way. I don't know about anybody else, but I'm not a fan of wars and even less so of forever wars.

I feel bad for innocent people over there that might suffer, but there was never any practical way this was ever going to end better. The US being over there serves no reasonable functional purpose, and this was always going to be the logical conclusion to this entire thing. We should have never set up to stay long term to begin with. I would hope that this teaches us a lesson about meddling in other places, but it probably won't. It hasn't in the past, just see Vietnam, and I have no hope of it happening now as long as politicians and corporations feel they can gain from things like this.

Just think if we had spent the trillions of dollars for this and the trillions of dollars funding other aspects of our military during this time on making the lives of the American people better instead? Instead we spent unthinkable amounts of money and got a lot of people killed. What a waste.

 

[Theopolis Q. Hossenffer]

"Should they be getting involved in such countries? I agree with you that the US (or any country) shouldn't be making that call unilaterally. If the UN didn't have the dumbass veto provisions, then I might say we should leave it up to them. Apart from that, I can't say for sure."

Well here is the official line on why there is as veto in the UN:

https://www.un.org/securitycouncil/content/voting-system

And regarding a country's interest I would like to quote Lord Palmerston about that:

https://www.oxfordreference.com/view/10.1093/acref/9780191826719.001.0001/q-oro-ed4-00008130

 

[gmase]

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/08/15/afghanistan-taliban-seize-kabul-504749

What happens if an overly ambitious Taliban fighter decides to shoot down a helicopter?

 

[Theopolis Q. Hossenffer]

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/08/15/afghanistan-taliban-seize-kabul-504749

What happens if an overly ambitious Taliban fighter decides to shoot down a helicopter?

Collateral damage. He was aiming for Afghan forces. The new Taliban government will issue an apology.