A Bipolar world? The Rise of China

Hey everyone,

What are your views on the rise of China? Can in grow peacfully?
Here's an article with a little bit of information and a positive outlook:
There's a new Red Scare. But is China really so scary?

My personal views are that China will try to be a regional power, and will create a Chinese version of the Monroe doctrine. The US is/will try to prevent that by containing it within countries like Japan, India and Russia.
Tensions will rise and I think militairy rivalry will be inevitable, sooner or later China will want to have the border issues with Japan, or the sovereign status of Taiwan settled and the US will disagree. As a world power, the US would not want to have a competitor.
 
People need to accept that China is already the new world super power and that the west is fading. In many ways we only have ourselves to blame, in the UK we closed most of the coal mines because importing coal from China was seen as cheaper. At least they made the figures look that way! Today if you want a good product produced cheaply the first place to look is China. Slowly we are becoming dependent on China, and strong trade links with the west can only provide a positive future.
 
I think one of the major issues both for the Chinese themselves and in terms of international relations is the fact that in 10-15 years because of the one ***** policy their population will be so skewed in one direction that you're going to have a lot of frustrated young men kicking around the place and who knows what kind of pressures that kind of population will have on a nations economy, let alone what happens if the majority of those men join the military. A couple hundred million or so strong military really isn't something the US and its neighbours in particular wants to be dealing with. China of course is never going to start a war with the US I think this much is certain but in terms of its dominance in the region their power will only increase as far as I can see.

Economically it's somewhat different, for all of those people to now scoff at the thought of China calling in US debt really haven't thought that situation through entirely. Firstly the debt is in US dollars, as soon as those debts are called in the value of the dollar would decrease exponentially levelling the debt almost worthless and systematically destroying every western economy in the process. No, I don't think China ever expects to actually get those debts back in terms of monetary funds, they'll use them for trade purposes and as we've seen in recent years they'll put that power to good use.
 

vodkazvictim

Why save the world, when you can rule it?
People need to accept that China is already the new world super power and that the west is fading. In many ways we only have ourselves to blame, in the UK we closed most of the coal mines because importing coal from China was seen as cheaper. At least they made the figures look that way! Today if you want a good product produced cheaply the first place to look is China. Slowly we are becoming dependent on China, and strong trade links with the west can only provide a positive future.
True, apart from the fact that products are built to break these days; engineers study built in obsollescance at university. You cannot buy a TV that will still work in 10 years - because if you did there's a fear that you would never buy a new TV.

Hey everyone,

What are your views on the rise of China? Can in grow peacfully?
Here's an article with a little bit of information and a positive outlook:
There's a new Red Scare. But is China really so scary?

My personal views are that China will try to be a regional power, and will create a Chinese version of the Monroe doctrine. The US is/will try to prevent that by containing it within countries like Japan, India and Russia.
Tensions will rise and I think militairy rivalry will be inevitable, sooner or later China will want to have the border issues with Japan, or the sovereign status of Taiwan settled and the US will disagree. As a world power, the US would not want to have a competitor.
china is indeed a rising threat. the worst in the world. The world needs to unite to deal with her. Preferably not by war though.

I think one of the major issues both for the Chinese themselves and in terms of international relations is the fact that in 10-15 years because of the one ***** policy their population will be so skewed in one direction that you're going to have a lot of frustrated young men kicking around the place and who knows what kind of pressures that kind of population will have on a nations economy, let alone what happens if the majority of those men join the military. A couple hundred million or so strong military really isn't something the US and its neighbours in particular wants to be dealing with. China of course is never going to start a war with the US I think this much is certain but in terms of its dominance in the region their power will only increase as far as I can see.

Economically it's somewhat different, for all of those people to now scoff at the thought of China calling in US debt really haven't thought that situation through entirely. Firstly the debt is in US dollars, as soon as those debts are called in the value of the dollar would decrease exponentially levelling the debt almost worthless and systematically destroying every western economy in the process. No, I don't think China ever expects to actually get those debts back in terms of monetary funds, they'll use them for trade purposes and as we've seen in recent years they'll put that power to good use.
He's got a spot on point. The fact that there are a LOT of single women in Russia (women by far outnumber men there) could lead to either a peaceful or horrible solution to this problem... But I feel sorry for any chinese man expecting a submissive and dutiful wife who marries a Russian woman! :rofl:
china's economic power must, of course, be destroyed.

Asked in a Washington Post-ABC News poll this month whether this century would be more of an "American century" or more of a "Chinese century," many Americans across the country chose China."
Surprising

Recent reports about how China is threatening to take the lead in scientific research seem to ignore the serious problems it is facing with plagiarism and faked results.
Not so surprising. chinese seem unable to do anything but copy. For this I blame their culture; they're so bound up with respecting the old, so respectful of the wishes of the older people that dynamic new ideas either take longer to come through, or do not come through at all.

some experts, such as Kenneth Lieberthal, a former senior director for Asia at the National Security Council and a man who has taught us a lot about China, say using China's green-tech rise as an excuse to whip America into shape isn't such a bad idea, because the result -- a cleaner environment or a more high-tech workforce -- makes a lot of sense.
:thumbsup:

some Chinese neoconservatives achieved rock-star popularity there for promoting the notion that the United States was conspiring to contain China, militarily and economically.
They're correct. And it's the right thing to do; china must be stopped before they pull a Hitler and start WW3.[/QUOTE]

the United States does not need a bogeyman on its tail to get moving.
Wrong. VERY VERY WRONG.
WW2: us intervenes only because of the fear of facing a united Europe; a political and military *** aimed straight at them.
Vietnam: Only when it is shown that fat, heavy fighters like the F4 just can't cut it in a real fight is the decision to make lightweight fighters for usaf taken. But after that when they've never faced a skilled air *****? Planes get fatter - F35.

China is no enemy
SO WRONG! Have you ever met any chinese people? We all know that there are a shedload of chinese immigrants living in our countries - but you NEVER meet them socially! They hang around only with other chinese. They don't integrate. I've seen it in England, Russia, Greece and Switzerland. It's known in France. And YOU know it happens in your country however much you may try to deny it.
So what we have here is a race quite happy to sterilise it's own people, which clearly regards other races as subhuman and not worthy of association. What could possibly be wrong with letting them become a world power? :facepalm:

But when it is led by a reasonably enlightened group of people, as China is today
OK, who wrote this? I'm gonna track down the source and look for signs of bias.

Want to resuscitate the F-22 fighter jet? No better country than China to invoke as the menace of the future.
And what's really sad is that the F22 doesn't make sense under ANY circumstance.

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Wait till the Chinese economic bubble bursts. China is just a shell with nothing on the inside.
 

roronoa3000

Banned
I aint afeared of no stinkin', tiny eyed havin', one baby makin', fragile toy makin', dog eatin', funny word writin', ******** gymnast havin', smoggy air breathin', censored porn makin' chinadudes.
 
"SO WRONG! Have you ever met any chinese people? We all know that there are a shedload of chinese immigrants living in our countries - but you NEVER meet them socially! They hang around only with other chinese. They don't integrate. I've seen it in England, Russia, Greece and Switzerland. It's known in France. And YOU know it happens in your country however much you may try to deny it.
So what we have here is a race quite happy to sterilise it's own people, which clearly regards other races as subhuman and not worthy of association. What could possibly be wrong with letting them become a world power?"
- *****

I don't think the attitude of the people have a lot to do with how they will behave in the international political system. States are just states, their behaviour is directed by the elements of the structure: It's anarchic, self-help and the major currency is power.
Therefore I do not believe the US has the duty to stop China from growing for any moral reasons, they just will do it because it is in their interest.
In WW2 the moral compass and the realistic compass pointed in the same direction, but that was just a coincidence. (I think that is what you were trying to say? Then I agree with you)
That being said, I think China will evolve in some respects in order to handle regional hegemony. Altough a shitload of frustrated men will surely lead to war. I've read an article of a Human geographist once that there is a strong correlation between war en the availability of young men. Honor trough war is a typically masculine value and when there are a lot of men who can't get their self esteem from anything else....

On the whole though, altough the Rise of China will be bad for the US, I think it might just be good for the international system. With the US as the only superpower their are no external "checks and balances" for their behavior, all their restraint will have to come from the inside. (Which it clearly doesn't)
 
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Facetious

Moderated
Re: A Bipolar world?

Re: The Rise of China

Yesterday a right wing goof talking point . . . today a reality I guess. :facepalm:
 

vodkazvictim

Why save the world, when you can rule it?
"SO WRONG! Have you ever met any chinese people? We all know that there are a shedload of chinese immigrants living in our countries - but you NEVER meet them socially! They hang around only with other chinese. They don't integrate. I've seen it in England, Russia, Greece and Switzerland. It's known in France. And YOU know it happens in your country however much you may try to deny it.
So what we have here is a race quite happy to sterilise it's own people, which clearly regards other races as subhuman and not worthy of association. What could possibly be wrong with letting them become a world power?"
- *****

I don't think the attitude of the people have a lot to do with how they will behave in the international political system. States are just states, their behaviour is directed by the elements of the structure: It's anarchic, self-help and the major currency is power.
Therefore I do not believe the US has the duty to stop China from growing for any moral reasons, they just will do it because it is in their interest.
In WW2 the moral compass and the realistic compass pointed in the same direction, but that was just a coincidence. (I think that is what you were trying to say? Then I agree with you)
That being said, I think China will evolve in some respects in order to handle regional hegemony. Altough a shitload of frustrated men will surely lead to war. I've read an article of a Human geographist once that there is a strong correlation between war en the availability of young men. Honor trough war is a typically masculine value and when there are a lot of men who can't get their self esteem from anything else....

On the whole though, altough the Rise of China will be bad for the US, I think it might just be good for the international system. With the US as the only superpower their are no external "checks and balances" for their behavior, all their restraint will have to come from the inside. (Which it clearly doesn't)

If you want to quote one post, hit the quote button. If you want to quote several, hit the button next to that on each post.
People control states. Aggressive, racist chinese will make the china they control aggressive and racist. That simple.
The rise of china won't just be bad for the us - you can't be friends with china - just ask the Russians; the chinese took damansky island and illegally copies (very capable) Su27 aircraft. If you can't be friends with them, what can you do with them?
:ak47:
 
If there is one thing the world's history has shown us about power it's that almost everybody that has it will someday not be able to resist using it. It's even worse when that's the case with a place that's as nihilistic, tyrannical, and ****** is China is.
 
the Chinese are the biggest owner of US debt so we are in bed with those Reds and dependent on each other! its a strange relationship. The war between US and China will happen but probably not in our lifetime!

it will come when countries are fighting for the last drips of oil that will only be available in AFRICA. China is too late to get a foot in the door in the middle east the biggest reserve so the are banking on getting the next best untapped reserves in the dark contitent..

The US and China battle ground will be in GHANA in 2070 over the oil reserve being tapped there
 

roronoa3000

Banned
the Chinese are the biggest owner of US debt so we are in bed with those Reds and dependent on each other! its a strange relationship. The war between US and China will happen but probably not in our lifetime!

it will come when countries are fighting for the last drips of oil that will only be available in AFRICA. China is too late to get a foot in the door in the middle east the biggest reserve so the are banking on getting the next best untapped reserves in the dark contitent..

The US and China battle ground will be in GHANA in 2070 over the oil reserve being tapped there

Writing a novel, are we?
 

PlasmaTwa2

The Second-Hottest Man in my ******'s Basement
So what you're saying is that we should start snuggling-up to India...
 
If you want to quote one post, hit the quote button. If you want to quote several, hit the button next to that on each post.
People control states. Aggressive, racist chinese will make the china they control aggressive and racist. That simple.
The rise of china won't just be bad for the us - you can't be friends with china - just ask the Russians; the chinese took damansky island and illegally copies (very capable) Su27 aircraft. If you can't be friends with them, what can you do with them?
:ak47:

Sure, people control states. But people who are in control always go trough a certain socialisation process. Just look at the time when all the newly independent african states started to pop up. Either way they wanted to become "accepted" and started to wear western clothing and diplomatic manners. Or they actively identified themself with Africa by wearing african robes (but still using a western diplomatic style). The same happened to China long ago.
I'm not saying everyone will become nice and friendly but the effects op power and responsibilty have it's impact on people. That's why you see very little difference in behavior of states over time. It is only when the scructure changes that the incentives change.
Even though Chinese people might have a collective memory of superiority (China's name in chinese is "Land in the middle", they were the center of attention between a land of barbarians.) this does not have much implications for their foreign policy because they cannot escape reality. However, they will try to justify their acts in a different way. We justify our actions by trying to spread democracy and our right to protect (western) human rights. They justify it another way but they will still have predictable behaviour.
They will try to get a hold of the region, so they will have to collect every bit of economic and militairy might they can muster. (But I think they might be contained by a balancing coalition of India, Russia, Japan and (Southern) Korea.)
 

vodkazvictim

Why save the world, when you can rule it?
So what you're saying is that we should start snuggling-up to India...
Indeed we should - India has a huge worksforce, with great potential. Despite being ***** by the British for many years she still has plenty of resources and militarily she's not in too bad shape; she has MiG29s and 31s. Also at least 1 carrier, operating Su33.
Of course, there's a lot of Socialist tendency in India and unless the higher ups can control it then we will have problems snuggling up to them. You Canadians have a headstart though as (last time I checked) both you and India are in the commonwealth.

Sure, people control states. But people who are in control always go trough a certain socialisation process. Just look at the time when all the newly independent african states started to pop up. Either way they wanted to become "accepted" and started to wear western clothing and diplomatic manners. Or they actively identified themself with Africa by wearing african robes (but still using a western diplomatic style). The same happened to China long ago.
I'm not saying everyone will become nice and friendly but the effects op power and responsibilty have it's impact on people. That's why you see very little difference in behavior of states over time. It is only when the scructure changes that the incentives change.
Even though Chinese people might have a collective memory of superiority (China's name in chinese is "Land in the middle", they were the center of attention between a land of barbarians.) this does not have much implications for their foreign policy because they cannot escape reality. However, they will try to justify their acts in a different way. We justify our actions by trying to spread democracy and our right to protect (western) human rights. They justify it another way but they will still have predictable behaviour.
They will try to get a hold of the region, so they will have to collect every bit of economic and militairy might they can muster. (But I think they might be contained by a balancing coalition of India, Russia, Japan and (Southern) Korea.)

So we agree that china will be arrogant and do what she wants? I'm confused.
How do you know that? You speak chinese? Yes we need to work with the Russians. But of course, we never will because of pride. Do you know the old proverb "pride before a fall?".
 
Indeed we should - India has a huge worksforce, with great potential. Despite being ***** by the British for many years she still has plenty of resources and militarily she's not in too bad shape; she has MiG29s and 31s. Also at least 1 carrier, operating Su33.
Of course, there's a lot of Socialist tendency in India and unless the higher ups can control it then we will have problems snuggling up to them. You Canadians have a headstart though as (last time I checked) both you and India are in the commonwealth.



So we agree that china will be arrogant and do what she wants? I'm confused.
How do you know that? You speak chinese? Yes we need to work with the Russians. But of course, we never will because of pride. Do you know the old proverb "pride before a fall?".

No, but Chinese people are not irrational. States need militairy strength en economic wealth to strengthen themselves and ensure their safety. They can't call 911, so they will try to control their environment as much as they can. And "pride before a fall" is excatly what happens to a lot of states who've tried to reach regional hegemony. Other states will either hop on the bandwagon with the rising power, or balance against it.
It is by these logical assumptions about rationality and the nature of the internal system (Anarchic, power is the currency) that I try to predict chinese behaviour and the american reaction, not by speaking chinese.
 
Chinese territorial ambitions lie close to China. See Spratley Islands for instance.
 
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