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Weekly Jobless Claims Plunge To Five-Year Low

Mayhem

Banned
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/12/27/weekly-jobless-claims_n_2369646.html

The average number of people seeking U.S. unemployment benefits over the past month fell to the lowest level since March 2008, a sign that the job market is healing.

The Labor Department said Thursday that weekly applications dropped 12,000 to a seasonally adjusted 350,000 in the week ended Dec. 22. The four-week average, a less volatile measure, fell to a nearly five-year low of 356,750.

Still, the Christmas holiday may have distorted the figures. A department spokesman said many state unemployment offices were closed Monday and Tuesday and could not provide exact data. That forced the government to rely on estimates. Normally, the government might estimate application data for one or two states. Last week, it had to use estimates for 19.

The estimates are usually fairly accurate, the spokesman said. Even so, the government will likely revise the figures by more than normal next week.

Weekly applications are a proxy for layoffs. They have mostly fluctuated this year between 360,000 and 390,000. At the same time, employers have added an average of 151,000 jobs a month in the first 11 months of 2012. That's just enough to slowly reduce the unemployment rate.

Economists were mildly encouraged by the decline in applications. But they emphasized that the figures are volatile around the holidays. They were also distorted until recent weeks by Superstorm Sandy.

Many expect next week's jobs report to show that employers added about 150,000 jobs in December.

The decline in unemployment benefit applications suggests companies are not yet slashing jobs because of concerns over the "fiscal cliff." That's the name for sharp tax increases and spending cuts that are scheduled to take effect next week unless the Obama administration and Congress can reach a deal before then.

Still, unemployment remains high and companies are reluctant to ramp up hiring. The unemployment rate fell to 7.7 percent in November from 7.9 percent in October mostly because many of the unemployed stopped looking for jobs. The government counts people as unemployed only if they are actively searching for work.


Negotiations between President Barack Obama and House Republican leaders on a package to avoid the fiscal cliff stalemated last week. Obama and congressional lawmakers return to Washington Thursday with just days to go before the deadline.

The total number of people receiving benefits rose 73,000 to 5.48 million in the week ended Dec. 8, the latest data available.

That includes about 2.1 million people who have been out of work for at least six months and are receiving extended benefits paid for by the federal government. The program is ending at the end of the year. That means those recipients will receive their final checks next week, unless an extension is granted.

Obama wants an extension included in the budget deal. Republicans have yet to agree to that.

There are signs the economy is improving. The once-battered housing market is recovering, which should lead to more construction jobs in the coming months. Companies ordered more long-lasting manufactured goods in November, a sign they are investing more in equipment and software. And Americans spent more in November. Consumer spending drives nearly 70 percent of economic growth.

While a short fall over the cliff won't push the economy into recession, most economists expect some tax increases to take effect next year. That could slow growth.

Consumers are starting to worry about higher taxes. A measure of consumer confidence fell to a five-month low this month, a survey released Friday found. And reports show the holiday shopping season was the weakest since 2008, when the country was in a deep recession.


And BTW, gas prices here in Las Vegas have been falling steadily too. So, I'm wondering where the Apocalypse that the Conservatives predicted is.
 
Rebuttal:

Headlines: Jobless Claims Plunge, Dive, Plummet, and Decline Sharply. But Did They?

The day before Thanksgiving brought encouraging news on unemployment. CBS News.com reported "New Jobless Claims Plunge to 466K." Investors.com headlined "Jobless Claims Dive To 466,000." CNN Money.com issued a special report titled "Jobless claims plummet to 14-month low." And the Financial Times included a link to the Calculated Risk blog article "Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decline Sharply."

Such good news, reported widely throughout the media, doubtless gave hope to many Americans. If some of them wished to attribute this dramatic turnaround to Barack Obama's stimulus program, so much the better. The truth, however, is that improvement in the number of jobless claims was less than electrifying. The numbers touted in the media are, according to the Department of Labor, "seasonally adjusted" with a statistical technique designed to accommodate fluctuations in the job market. Set that aside, and the numbers are not nearly as rosy. As DOL's Employment and Training Administration reported:

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 543,926 in the week ending Nov. 21, an increase of 68,080 from the previous week.
Only CBS News.com, in its Associated Press article noted: "Excluding seasonal adjustments, claims rose." And that was in the fifth paragraph.

Back when George Bush was president, CNN Money.com had no difficulty detailing the difference between the actual number of jobless claims and the massaged number in its article, "Jobless claims drop, but... Report shows sharp drop in those filing for benefits, but seasonal factors distort results."

In the Age of Obama, highlighting such information isn't necessary. No use confusing the public with those dry old facts when such hope and change are breaking out all over. At least in the mainstream media.

http://www.outloudopinion.com/2009/...ive-plummet-and-decline-sharply-but-did-they/
 

Rey C.

Racing is life... anything else is just waiting.
Basic trend analysis, using some sort of moving average, is the best way to look at data and compare it to previous data. It gives the best idea (by smoothing out the daily or weekly ups & downs) of where things are really headed. I really have no idea what Mr. Fisher is talking about (and I doubt that he does either), but this is a chart representing the Weekly Jobless Claims broken down as a 4 week moving average for the past 10 years. Sort of speaks for itself.


That's the wonderful thing about data: it is what it is - even for those who like to apply partisan spins or try to misrepresent it. It continues to be what it is. :)

Unemployment-Claims-Initial-Weekly-Unemployment-Claims-4-Week-Moving-Average-Week-Ending-Dec-15-2012-FRED.png


Housing had been one of the biggest drags on the economy and the job market. Case-Shiller reported that new home prices have, for 2012, posted their first yearly gain since 2006. New home sales have also posted a 15% annual gain. This suggests that the economic drag of housing may now be behind us. And most economists expect employment to continue to pick up through 2013, short of the rascals in Washington, D.C. running us back into the ditch.
 
I really have no idea what Mr. Fisher is talking about (and I doubt that he does either)

Read it again.

The truth, however, is that improvement in the number of jobless claims was less than electrifying. The numbers touted in the media are, according to the Department of Labor, "seasonally adjusted" with a statistical technique designed to accommodate fluctuations in the job market. Set that aside, and the numbers are not nearly as rosy. As DOL's Employment and Training Administration reported:

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 543,926 in the week ending Nov. 21, an increase of 68,080 from the previous week.
Only CBS News.com, in its Associated Press article noted: "Excluding seasonal adjustments, claims rose." And that was in the fifth paragraph.
 

Rey C.

Racing is life... anything else is just waiting.
In "statistics speak", without seasonal adjustments, you would not be accounting for special cause events. That's simply how statistical data is typically presented. And as you can see, the data is not presented one way under Obama and another way under Bush - the same methodology is used in both cases over time. That allows us to look at apples vs. apples, rather than apples vs. coconuts (which is what some of these amateur right wing blogs often do).

You're free to look at the 4 week moving average without the seasonal adjustments. But you will still see a downward sloping trend line.

Fisher, I know you hope and pray for bad news for our republic. I know you want things to go badly for America as long as Obama is President. But you're learning the lesson that betting against the U.S. of A. is a sure fire fail.
 

vodkazvictim

Why save the world, when you can rule it?
This is all obviously Obama's fault and a damn good reason why he should be impeached.

If employment rates rise like this then sooner or later employees may feel like they're in some form of position to negotiate better terms for themselves and before you know it it will be damnably hard to exploit employees without them migrating elsewhere.
 
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