Turkey’s Erdogan faces one of his toughest political challenges
Recep Tayyip Erdogan is facing one of the worst crises of his 11 years as Turkey’s leader – his refusal to strike against jihadi militants rampaging just across the border in Syria has triggered deadly protests at home and intense diplomatic pressure from erstwhile western backers.
But on Friday, as he addressed a rally of supporters in Trabzon in the Black Sea region, one of the most nationalist parts of the country, Mr Erdogan displayed his characteristic self-confidence and thundering rhetoric.
Speaking before a mass of flag-waving supporters, he denounced “dirty plots” hatched by enemies at home and abroad disturbed by Turkey’s progress and promised that he would pursue peace between Turks and Kurds until his dying day.
““No country in the world has the right to decide Turkey’s agenda,” he declared. He claimed was it the “only country” helping Kobani, a Syrian Kurdish border town now besieged by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, known as Isis, since Ankara had taken in 200,000 refugees since the assault started.
But amid television images of Turkish tanks standing by as Isis continues its onslaught on Kobani – one report said the jihadis had taken 40 per cent of the town on Friday – some commentators said Mr Erdogan’s position was becoming increasingly perilous.
“There is no happy ending here; all options are bad,” said Suat Kiniklioglu, a former ruling party member of parliament turned Erdogan critic who noted with concerned the violence that erupted on Turkish streets this week. “Erdogan’s fixation with regime change in Syria has blinded his practical decision-making.”
For three years the Turkish leader has campaigned for the ousting of Syrian president Bashar al-Assad, a former ally who infuriated him by disregarding his advice and cracking down on the first stirrings of protest at his rule in Syria.
Mr Erdogan insists Mr Assad’s removal should remain the priority and has made US support for the creation of a buffer zone in Syria, a condition of greater Turkish action against Isis.
But the problem for Turkey is that the US and many others now see Isis, not Mr Assad, as the main threat.
Moreover, the crisis comes at a time when Turkey’s international reputation has already suffered, with Mr Erdogan attacked by critics for authoritarian tendencies.
“Turkey cannot just sit idle and watch a massacre on its border,” said Sinan Ulgen at Carnegie Europe, adding the “clock was ticking” for Turkish action. But he noted that as a state now bordering jihadi territory – and with a complement of soldiers guarding an ancient tomb within Isis-held territory in Syria – Turkey is painfully vulnerable to Isis retaliation.
“If Isis wants to draw in Turkey, they can,” he said.
Mr Erdogan faces pressure on multiple fronts. The US is spelling out ever more specific demands for Turkey to support the anti-Isis coalition. Chuck Hagel, secretary of defence, called on Ankara to open up the air base at Incirlik, southern Turkey.
Following marathon meetings on Thursday between senior members of the Turkish government and President Barack Obama’s anti-Isis envoy, retired General John Allen, US military planners are set to arrive in Ankara next week.
Staffan de Mistura, the UN envoy to Syria, called on Friday for Ankara to allow “volunteers” to cross the border and defend Kobani and thus avoid another Srebrenica, the Bosnian city where thousands of men and boys were killed in 1995.
But Turkey has sought to prevent Kurdish fighters and weapons from coming to the aid of the town, which is cut off from other Kurdish strongholds.
Turkey is already feeling the consequences back home. At least 31 people have died this week in protests by angry Kurds at Ankara’s perceived inactivity
In sign that sectarian and ethnic violence is spilling over from Syria, Islamist radicals and outraged Kurds have clashed on Turkish streets.
On Thursday, two policemen were killed and a police chief seriously wounded in Bingol in the east of the country, in an apparent assassination attempt. Such attacks were common during the worst of Turkey’s now 30-year war with the outlawed Kurdistan Workers party, or PKK, which is affiliated with the defenders of Kobani.
Yet while Kobani’s supporters call for action to help the town, most Turks oppose any step that could embroil their country in a new Middle Eastern war.
Mr Kiniklioglu argued that ultimately Mr Erdogan would be swayed by domestic politics, with parliamentary elections next year, rather than US pressure.
William Hale, a historian of Turkish foreign policy, said Ankara’s stance “made reasonable sense given the serious lack of clarity in western policy and its own national interest”.
Protests spread to Germany
In Germany, Turkish Kurds, who have settled in the country since the 1960s, have staged angry demonstrations this week, sometimes clashing with police and with supporters of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, the group known as Isis, writes Stefan Wagstyl.
In the latest incident on Friday, Kurdish activists temporarily occupied the local offices of the Social Democrat party, Chancellor Angela Merkel’s coalition partner. The protesters, who called for armed solidarity with Kobani’s beleaguered Kurds, left peacefully after talks with SPD members.
The protest followed demonstrations involving hundreds of Turkish Kurds in cities including Hamburg, Stuttgart, Düsseldorf and Munich, where there was a sit-in in the local offices of the conservative CSU party.
The police were also braced for a big demonstration in Düsseldorf on Saturday, when 12,000 people are expected.
The Kurdish Community in Germany, an umbrella organisation, on Friday called for peaceful protests in support of those suffering in Syria. The Central Council of Muslims in Germany appealed for any demonstrations to be peaceful, warning that “some youths” had in recent days had tried to bring “the war and hatred” to Germany.
