I can't help but wonder if we are just returning to what I call the Standard Human Condition. With the exception of the last 100 years or so if you think about it, there has always been a very small portion of people at the top(Kings, Emperors, Wealthy Merchants, whoever) then just below them a modest group of Middle class folks(Dukes, Earls, moderately wealthy merchants to care for the needs of the top, etc) and at the bottom 90-95 % absolutely dirt poor. Serfs, peasants, what have you. A fellow I have known for years(retired Naval officer, so no dummy) has said that he has read articles that say that what we are entering now is the Fall of Western Civilization. All the others have fallen(Rome, Greece, Ottoman, Austrian. USSR, etc.) and although like the Roman this will take a while(most of us will be safely dead but out grandkids?) it nonetheless will happen. What do you think?
Standard Human Condition... I like that. It's an interesting observation, and I'd say that you're onto something. In my world, we call that reversion to the mean. But it doesn't just apply to statistical based trading models. As you're suggesting, I think that it can apply to human socioeconomic conditions as well.
Having had a fascination with the Roman Republic, and the later Roman Empire, since high school, I've also drawn certain parallels over the years. I'm hardly the first though. The Founding Fathers and the writers of our Constitution and the Bill of Rights based a
great deal of our foundations on the lessons learned by the Greeks and (primarily) the Romans. There's an excellent book which speaks to this. It's titled
Empires of Trust - How Rome Built, and America Is Building, A New World. It's a good read, if you ever have the time. I think that you're a person who would enjoy it.
Although Rome had a republican foundation (governmentally) until the time of Augustus, their society was always
strictly class based... in a formal sense socially, but not economically. Apart from slavery and institutional racism and sexism in the last century and before, we've not really had those sorts of social class restrictions. We've pretty much had the idea that a man could rise above his original station in life. And a great many people in this country have done just that. IMO, this is the main reason that people still flock to this nation (legally and illegally); it's still the
Land of Opportunity. But from my observations, it's immigrants who
now believe that most, and they're successfully taking advantage of those opportunities. It's the native born Americans who aren't (for whatever reason) grabbing for the brass ring. Look at the number of immigrants who are now running some of the biggest American based companies in the world, as well as leaders in the tech and medical fields. Don't get me wrong. There's nothing wrong with that. I'm just pointing out that determined people from "challenged" backgrounds are succeeding here... but native born citizens aren't. And, just my opinion, but where Americans (especially younger ones) are now focused on the reasons why they can't succeed and how unfair things are, immigrants are elbowing them out of the way and focusing on the ways that they can succeed.
But to your point, yes, I feel that this younger generation will look toward the government (which will continue to be led by the elites) and expanded government programs to make things "more fair" (whatever that means). But I am a suspicious person by nature, and I feel like I know a thing or two about human nature. So as I see people like Mark Zuckerberg, his partner in crime Sheryl Sandberg, George Soros, Bill Gates, Mike Bloomberg, Jeff Bezos and other members of the super wealthy elite saying that they're going to support handouts for the downtrodden, I smell a rat. Why would they? Because as they hand out slivers of bread, they'll have even more control and power... and they'll be eating cake. I believe that's sort of what Torre is saying too.
) - I also tend to think the same way about those who buy into the current bifurcated climate.
