http://www.theguardian.com/world/20...s-claimed-nuclear-test-is-a-cause-for-concern'A grave threat' : why North Korea's claimed nuclear test is a cause for concern
The claims are impossible to immediately verify, but the fact that the regime has again surprised the world, including Beijing, is worrying
It’s the unexpected apparent detonation of a powerful nuclear weapon, now in the possession of an unpredictable, paranoid dictator.
But how worried should the world really be by North Korean claims that it successfully conducted its fourth nuclear test on Wednesday morning?
Very, according to an international body that monitors the ban on nuclear testing. The test, said Lassina Zerbo, head of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organisation, was “a grave threat to international peace and security”.
If North Korean descriptions of the type of bomb detonated at its main testing site are true, then Zerbo’s caution is well placed.
The device, according to North Korean state media, was a miniaturised hydrogen bomb, marking a significant departure from three previous tests, which involved atomic bombs.
Not only are hydrogen bombs more powerful, the possibility that the regime’s “H-bomb of justice” has been miniaturised will add to concerns that, a decade after its first nuclear test, North Korea is closer to developing a missile and warhead system sophisticated enough to target the US mainland.
Those claims are impossible to verify – there is already speculation that it actually detonated a uranium or plutonium bomb – and North Korea is not above overstating its military capabilities.
But in apparently reaching such an advanced stage in its nuclear development, despite a raft of UN security council sanctions and the Obama administration’s attempts to isolate the secretive state, North Korea has again laid bare the limitations of the international community’s response.
As he focuses on domestic ballistic controversies in the final months of his presidency, Obama is unlikely to try a new approach towards Pyongyang, according to John Delury, an associate professor at Yonsei University in Seoul.
“The people in Washington seem to have lost their enthusiasm for the policy of ‘strategic patience’ a while ago, and yet no one can propose a compelling alternative,” he said.
“Both sanctions and engagement are seen as cul-de-sacs. President Obama already has enough to worry about and is extremely unlikely to want to spend capital on Pyongyang. So we are kind of stuck in gear. Certainly a third nuclear test on Obama’s watch makes it hard to claim the policy has been a success.”
The US state department responded to the test by simply repeating its warning to North Korea to “abide by its international obligations and commitments” under UN security council resolutions, adding that it would “not accept” North Korea as a nuclear state.
What of China, North Korea’s main aid donor and traditional ally?
After previous nuclear tests, the world turned to Beijing in the belief that it could rein in its volatile neighbour. But in a sign of the recent deterioration in relations between the two countries, a China-brokered solution appears even more remote.
Instead, Beijing is expected to support whatever resolution results from an emergency meeting of the UN security council in New York later on Wednesday, said Daniel Pinkston, a lecturer in international relations at Troy University in Seoul.
“China will support a security council resolution, but there will be no authorisation of the use of force to disarm North Korea,” Pinkston said.
Delury is more hopeful that China can exert pressure bilaterally. “Beijing’s bilateral reaction is more important than whatever China does at the UN security council, which has proven to be an ineffective forum for tackling the North Korean nuclear problem,” he said.
“Xi Jinping is presumably seriously displeased with Kim Jong-un, but we’ll have to watch and see how he acts on it. China’s options are limited because of the 800-mile border and danger to north-east China’s economy and stability posed by North Korea.”
There can be little doubt that Xi will be furious after Wednesday’s test – not least at Pyongyang’s decision not to inform Beijing in advance.
Shi Yinhong, a government foreign policy adviser and a professor of international relations at Beijing’s Renmin University, said: “Of course he will be very angry and Xi Jinping will further delay his intention in the process [towards] improved relations with North Korea. With this kind of action you have no choice.”
Shi said China had been attempting to improve ties with North Korea, sending Liu Yunshan, one of the Communist party’s most powerful leaders, to visit in October 2015. “Only a few months ago China tried to improve relations with North Korea by sending Liu Yunshan to Pyongyang. But of course this process … will be very much more difficult now,” he said.
The test showed those attempts had failed “in some ways [because of] Kim Jong-un’s own actions”. With Wednesday morning’s test Kim was sending a signal that he was prepared to defy anyone, “including Xi Jinping himself”.
At home, Kim will have done little harm to his carefully cultivated image as a resilient leader, determined to counter US “aggression” with a show of strength of, literally, seismic proportions.
Hours after the test, North Korean state media released images of cheering crowds in Pyongyang.
The test would be received “very well” in North Korea, Pinkston said. “The regime will exploit this to shore up support from its coalition of supporters.”
Today, just as in the spring of 2013, when Kim threatened nuclear strikes against South Korea and the US, the world is no closer to military conflict with North Korea.
But it should be more worried. Not for the first time, the third generation of the country’s ruling dynasty has caught it napping.
It's time to be worried about the real world #1 nuclear threat : North Korea, not Iran
